Opinion Poll by Piepoli, 9–12 February 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 30.0% 27.5–32.7% 26.7–33.5% 26.1–34.2% 25.0–35.5%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 23.6% 21.3–26.2% 20.6–26.9% 20.1–27.5% 19.0–28.8%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 11.6% 9.9–13.6% 9.5–14.2% 9.1–14.7% 8.3–15.7%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 9.0% 7.5–10.9% 7.1–11.4% 6.8–11.8% 6.2–12.8%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 8.6% 7.2–10.4% 6.8–10.9% 6.4–11.4% 5.8–12.3%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.4% 2.6–4.7% 2.3–5.1% 2.1–5.4% 1.8–6.1%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.6% 1.9–3.8% 1.7–4.1% 1.5–4.4% 1.2–5.0%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 2.6% 1.9–3.8% 1.7–4.1% 1.5–4.4% 1.2–5.0%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.2% 1.6–3.3% 1.4–3.6% 1.2–3.9% 1.0–4.5%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 1.6% 1.1–2.6% 0.9–2.9% 0.8–3.1% 0.6–3.7%
Sud chiama Nord (*) 0.0% 1.0% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.1% 0.4–2.3% 0.3–2.8%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.0% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.1% 0.4–2.3% 0.3–2.8%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.3–1.3% 0.3–1.6% 0.2–1.8% 0.1–2.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 25 24–28 24–29 23–30 22–32
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 21 19–23 19–24 18–25 17–26
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 10 9–12 8–13 8–13 8–14
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 7 5–9 5–9 5–10 5–10
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 8 6–9 6–10 6–10 5–11
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–6
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
Azione (RE) 0 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–5
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0–4 0–4
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sud chiama Nord (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 2% 99.9%  
23 3% 98%  
24 20% 95%  
25 30% 76% Median
26 27% 46%  
27 8% 19%  
28 6% 11%  
29 2% 5%  
30 1.0% 3%  
31 0.8% 2%  
32 0.6% 1.0%  
33 0.1% 0.4%  
34 0.3% 0.3%  
35 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.8% 99.9%  
18 3% 99.1%  
19 12% 96%  
20 11% 84%  
21 32% 73% Median
22 24% 41%  
23 10% 17%  
24 2% 6%  
25 3% 4%  
26 0.6% 0.8%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.1% 100%  
7 0.2% 99.9%  
8 5% 99.7%  
9 11% 95%  
10 36% 84% Median
11 25% 48%  
12 14% 23%  
13 7% 9%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0.4% 0.4%  
16 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.4% 100%  
5 12% 99.6%  
6 12% 87%  
7 42% 76% Median
8 13% 33%  
9 18% 21%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.2% 0.5%  
12 0.2% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.9% 100%  
6 10% 99.0%  
7 36% 89%  
8 30% 53% Median
9 18% 24%  
10 3% 5%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 65% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 35%  
2 0% 35%  
3 0.1% 35%  
4 30% 35%  
5 4% 5%  
6 1.1% 1.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 84% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 16%  
2 0% 16%  
3 0.1% 16%  
4 16% 16%  
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 8%  
2 0% 8%  
3 0.1% 8%  
4 8% 8%  
5 0.7% 0.7%  
6 0% 0%  

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 4%  
2 0% 4%  
3 1.2% 4%  
4 2% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.3%  
2 0% 0.3%  
3 0% 0.3%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Sud chiama Nord (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sud chiama Nord (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 8 0% 6–9 6–10 6–10 5–11

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.9% 100%  
6 10% 99.0%  
7 36% 89%  
8 30% 53% Median
9 18% 24%  
10 3% 5%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations