Opinion Poll by Termometro Politico, 12–13 February 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 29.7% | 28.6–30.8% | 28.3–31.2% | 28.0–31.5% | 27.5–32.0% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 22.4% | 21.4–23.5% | 21.1–23.8% | 20.9–24.0% | 20.4–24.5% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 11.3% | 10.5–12.1% | 10.3–12.3% | 10.2–12.6% | 9.8–13.0% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 8.6% | 7.9–9.3% | 7.7–9.5% | 7.6–9.7% | 7.3–10.1% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 8.6% | 7.9–9.3% | 7.7–9.5% | 7.6–9.7% | 7.3–10.1% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 3.2–4.1% | 3.0–4.3% | 2.9–4.4% | 2.8–4.6% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 2.7% | 2.3–3.2% | 2.2–3.3% | 2.1–3.4% | 2.0–3.6% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.2–3.0% | 2.1–3.1% | 2.0–3.2% | 1.8–3.4% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 2.0–2.8% | 1.9–2.9% | 1.8–3.0% | 1.7–3.2% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.7–2.4% | 1.6–2.5% | 1.5–2.6% | 1.4–2.8% |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.5% | 0.9–1.6% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.7–1.8% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–0.8% | 0.4–0.9% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.3–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 27 | 26–27 | 25–27 | 25–28 | 24–29 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 20 | 20–21 | 19–21 | 19–21 | 18–22 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 10 | 9–10 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 9–12 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 8 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 7–9 | 7–9 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 24 | 1.3% | 99.8% | |
| 25 | 5% | 98.5% | |
| 26 | 18% | 93% | |
| 27 | 71% | 75% | Median |
| 28 | 3% | 4% | |
| 29 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 7% | 98% | |
| 20 | 81% | 91% | Median |
| 21 | 10% | 11% | |
| 22 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 11% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 80% | 89% | Median |
| 11 | 9% | 9% | |
| 12 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 6 | 18% | 99.3% | |
| 7 | 73% | 81% | Median |
| 8 | 8% | 8% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 7 | 35% | 99.7% | |
| 8 | 61% | 64% | Median |
| 9 | 3% | 3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 96% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 4% | |
| 3 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 8 | 0% | 7–8 | 7–8 | 7–9 | 7–9 |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 7 | 35% | 99.7% | |
| 8 | 61% | 64% | Median |
| 9 | 3% | 3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Termometro Politico
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 12–13 February 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 2700
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.10%