Opinion Poll by SWG for La7, 12–17 February 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 29.8% | 28.2–31.6% | 27.7–32.1% | 27.3–32.5% | 26.5–33.3% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 22.0% | 20.5–23.6% | 20.1–24.1% | 19.7–24.4% | 19.1–25.2% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 11.9% | 10.8–13.2% | 10.5–13.6% | 10.2–13.9% | 9.7–14.5% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 9.3% | 8.3–10.5% | 8.0–10.8% | 7.8–11.1% | 7.4–11.7% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 8.2% | 7.2–9.3% | 7.0–9.6% | 6.7–9.9% | 6.3–10.4% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.7% | 3.0–4.5% | 2.9–4.7% | 2.7–4.9% | 2.5–5.3% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 3.1% | 2.5–3.8% | 2.4–4.0% | 2.2–4.2% | 2.0–4.6% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.7% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.2–4.1% | 1.9–4.5% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 1.9–3.1% | 1.8–3.3% | 1.7–3.5% | 1.5–3.8% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.6–2.7% | 1.5–2.9% | 1.4–3.1% | 1.2–3.4% |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.2–1.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 26 | 25–29 | 25–29 | 24–30 | 23–31 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 20 | 19–22 | 18–22 | 18–22 | 17–23 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 10 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 9–12 | 8–13 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 8 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 4% | 99.3% | |
| 25 | 26% | 96% | |
| 26 | 22% | 69% | Median |
| 27 | 25% | 47% | |
| 28 | 10% | 22% | |
| 29 | 8% | 11% | |
| 30 | 3% | 3% | |
| 31 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 7% | 98.8% | |
| 19 | 35% | 91% | |
| 20 | 23% | 56% | Median |
| 21 | 23% | 33% | |
| 22 | 8% | 10% | |
| 23 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 9 | 4% | 99.2% | |
| 10 | 54% | 95% | Median |
| 11 | 17% | 41% | |
| 12 | 22% | 25% | |
| 13 | 2% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 6 | 12% | 99.6% | |
| 7 | 32% | 88% | |
| 8 | 27% | 56% | Median |
| 9 | 28% | 29% | |
| 10 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 7% | 99.8% | |
| 7 | 35% | 93% | |
| 8 | 40% | 58% | Median |
| 9 | 17% | 18% | |
| 10 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 52% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 48% | |
| 2 | 0% | 48% | |
| 3 | 1.0% | 48% | |
| 4 | 46% | 47% | |
| 5 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 92% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 8% | |
| 3 | 0.9% | 8% | |
| 4 | 7% | 7% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 3% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 8 | 0% | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 7% | 99.8% | |
| 7 | 35% | 93% | |
| 8 | 40% | 58% | Median |
| 9 | 17% | 18% | |
| 10 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: SWG
- Commissioner(s): La7
- Fieldwork period: 12–17 February 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1200
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.16%