Opinion Poll by Euromedia for La7, 25–26 February 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 30.1% 28.1–32.3% 27.5–32.9% 27.0–33.4% 26.1–34.4%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 22.9% 21.0–24.9% 20.5–25.4% 20.1–25.9% 19.3–26.9%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 11.8% 10.4–13.3% 10.0–13.8% 9.7–14.2% 9.1–15.0%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 9.2% 8.0–10.7% 7.7–11.1% 7.4–11.5% 6.9–12.2%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 8.2% 7.1–9.6% 6.8–10.0% 6.5–10.4% 6.0–11.1%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.5% 2.8–4.5% 2.6–4.8% 2.4–5.0% 2.1–5.5%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 2.9% 2.2–3.8% 2.1–4.1% 1.9–4.3% 1.7–4.8%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.8% 2.1–3.7% 2.0–3.9% 1.8–4.1% 1.6–4.6%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.2% 1.7–3.1% 1.6–3.3% 1.4–3.5% 1.2–4.0%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.9% 1.4–2.7% 1.2–2.9% 1.1–3.1% 0.9–3.5%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.8% 0.7–2.0% 0.6–2.1% 0.5–2.5%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.3–1.5% 0.2–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 28 25–30 24–30 24–31 23–31
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 21 19–22 19–22 18–23 17–24
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 11 9–12 9–12 9–13 8–13
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 7 6–9 6–9 6–9 5–10
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 8 6–9 6–9 6–10 6–10
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Azione (RE) 0 0 0 0 0–4 0–4
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.7% 99.9%  
24 5% 99.1%  
25 5% 94%  
26 7% 89%  
27 31% 82%  
28 27% 51% Median
29 3% 24%  
30 18% 21%  
31 3% 3%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.8% 99.9%  
18 2% 99.1%  
19 8% 97%  
20 35% 88%  
21 29% 53% Median
22 19% 24%  
23 3% 5%  
24 2% 2%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.8% 99.9%  
9 9% 99.1%  
10 33% 90%  
11 35% 57% Median
12 19% 22%  
13 3% 3%  
14 0.2% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.9% 100%  
6 15% 99.1%  
7 48% 84% Median
8 16% 36%  
9 19% 20%  
10 1.0% 1.0%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.4% 100%  
6 14% 99.6%  
7 26% 85%  
8 44% 60% Median
9 14% 16%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 87% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 13%  
2 0% 13%  
3 1.3% 13%  
4 10% 12%  
5 1.4% 1.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 5%  
2 0% 5%  
3 0.1% 5%  
4 4% 5%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0% 2%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.4%  
2 0% 0.4%  
3 0.1% 0.4%  
4 0.3% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 8 0% 6–9 6–9 6–10 6–10

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.4% 100%  
6 14% 99.6%  
7 26% 85%  
8 44% 60% Median
9 14% 16%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations