Opinion Poll by Winpoll, 17–26 February 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 27.6% | 26.2–29.1% | 25.7–29.6% | 25.4–29.9% | 24.7–30.7% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 24.4% | 23.0–25.9% | 22.6–26.3% | 22.3–26.6% | 21.6–27.4% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 10.7% | 9.7–11.8% | 9.4–12.1% | 9.2–12.3% | 8.7–12.9% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 8.4% | 7.5–9.4% | 7.3–9.7% | 7.1–9.9% | 6.7–10.4% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 8.3% | 7.5–9.3% | 7.2–9.6% | 7.0–9.8% | 6.6–10.3% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.9% | 3.4–4.7% | 3.2–4.9% | 3.1–5.0% | 2.8–5.4% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.7% | 2.3–3.4% | 2.1–3.5% | 2.0–3.7% | 1.8–4.0% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 2.7% | 2.3–3.4% | 2.1–3.5% | 2.0–3.7% | 1.8–4.0% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.1–3.1% | 2.0–3.3% | 1.8–3.5% | 1.6–3.8% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.2–2.1% | 1.2–2.3% | 1.1–2.4% | 0.9–2.6% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.0% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 24 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 22–26 | 21–27 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 21 | 20–23 | 20–23 | 19–23 | 19–24 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 9 | 8–10 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–11 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 7–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–9 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 9% | 99.0% | |
| 23 | 23% | 90% | |
| 24 | 38% | 67% | Median |
| 25 | 25% | 29% | |
| 26 | 3% | 4% | |
| 27 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 19 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 20 | 27% | 97% | |
| 21 | 38% | 70% | Median |
| 22 | 9% | 31% | |
| 23 | 21% | 22% | |
| 24 | 1.5% | 1.5% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 8 | 16% | 99.7% | |
| 9 | 62% | 84% | Median |
| 10 | 14% | 22% | |
| 11 | 8% | 8% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 6% | 99.8% | |
| 7 | 70% | 94% | Median |
| 8 | 22% | 24% | |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 8% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 48% | 92% | Median |
| 7 | 41% | 44% | |
| 8 | 2% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 63% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 37% | |
| 2 | 0% | 37% | |
| 3 | 4% | 37% | |
| 4 | 32% | 32% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 7–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–9 |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 6% | 99.8% | |
| 7 | 70% | 94% | Median |
| 8 | 22% | 24% | |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Winpoll
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 17–26 February 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1500
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.57%