Opinion Poll by Quorum – YouTrend for Sky TG24, 6–7 March 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 28.2% 26.3–30.3% 25.7–30.9% 25.2–31.5% 24.3–32.5%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 23.1% 21.3–25.1% 20.8–25.7% 20.3–26.2% 19.5–27.2%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 11.6% 10.2–13.1% 9.8–13.6% 9.5–14.0% 8.9–14.8%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 9.0% 7.8–10.4% 7.5–10.8% 7.2–11.1% 6.6–11.9%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 8.5% 7.3–9.8% 7.0–10.2% 6.7–10.6% 6.2–11.3%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.4% 2.7–4.3% 2.5–4.6% 2.3–4.8% 2.0–5.3%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.2% 2.0–4.4% 1.7–4.9%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 2.2% 1.7–3.1% 1.5–3.3% 1.4–3.5% 1.2–4.0%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.1% 1.6–2.9% 1.4–3.2% 1.3–3.4% 1.1–3.8%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 1.9% 1.4–2.6% 1.2–2.9% 1.1–3.1% 0.9–3.5%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 0.9% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.6% 0.4–1.8% 0.3–2.1%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–1.0% 0.2–1.1% 0.2–1.3% 0.1–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 25 22–26 22–26 22–27 21–27
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 20 19–22 18–22 18–22 17–23
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 10 9–12 9–12 9–12 8–13
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 7 6–9 6–9 5–9 5–10
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 7 6–8 6–9 6–9 5–9
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–4 0–4
Azione (RE) 0 0 0–3 0–4 0–4 0–4
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.9% 99.9%  
22 12% 99.0%  
23 16% 87%  
24 16% 72%  
25 33% 56% Median
26 20% 22%  
27 2% 3%  
28 0.2% 0.4%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.8% 99.9%  
18 6% 99.0%  
19 40% 93%  
20 32% 53% Median
21 8% 22%  
22 12% 14%  
23 1.4% 2%  
24 0.4% 0.5%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.1% 100%  
8 2% 99.9%  
9 34% 98%  
10 15% 64% Median
11 39% 49%  
12 10% 11%  
13 0.9% 1.0%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.3% 100%  
5 3% 99.7%  
6 42% 97%  
7 19% 54% Median
8 15% 36%  
9 19% 20%  
10 1.0% 1.0%  
11 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 1.1% 100%  
6 10% 98.9%  
7 47% 89% Median
8 33% 41%  
9 8% 8%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 87% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 13%  
2 0% 13%  
3 8% 13%  
4 5% 5%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 86% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 14%  
2 0% 14%  
3 5% 14%  
4 9% 9%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.4%  
2 0% 0.4%  
3 0.2% 0.4%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0% 0.2%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 7 0% 6–8 6–9 6–9 5–9

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 1.1% 100%  
6 10% 98.9%  
7 47% 89% Median
8 33% 41%  
9 8% 8%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations