Opinion Poll by Lab2101 for Affari Italiani, 23 March 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 30.0% 28.2–31.9% 27.7–32.4% 27.2–32.9% 26.4–33.9%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 21.1% 19.5–22.8% 19.1–23.3% 18.7–23.7% 17.9–24.6%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 11.2% 10.0–12.6% 9.7–13.0% 9.4–13.3% 8.8–14.0%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 8.7% 7.7–10.0% 7.3–10.3% 7.1–10.6% 6.6–11.2%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 8.4% 7.4–9.6% 7.1–10.0% 6.8–10.3% 6.4–10.9%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.2–5.2%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.1–3.8% 1.9–4.0% 1.7–4.4%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.8–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.1%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Sud chiama Nord (*) 0.0% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.5% 0.7–2.8%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.2% 0.2–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 27 25–28 25–29 24–30 23–30
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 19 18–20 17–22 16–22 16–22
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 11 9–12 9–12 8–12 8–12
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 8 7–9 7–10 7–10 6–11
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 7 6–8 6–9 5–9 5–9
Azione (RE) 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sud chiama Nord (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 100%  
23 1.2% 99.9%  
24 2% 98.7%  
25 20% 97%  
26 8% 77%  
27 26% 69% Median
28 36% 43%  
29 4% 7%  
30 2% 3%  
31 0.4% 0.4%  
32 0% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.3% 100%  
16 4% 99.7%  
17 4% 95%  
18 17% 91%  
19 27% 74% Median
20 40% 47%  
21 3% 8%  
22 5% 5%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.1% 100%  
8 3% 99.9%  
9 16% 97%  
10 21% 81%  
11 15% 60% Median
12 44% 44%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 2% 100%  
7 23% 98%  
8 41% 75% Median
9 25% 34%  
10 8% 9%  
11 0.8% 0.9%  
12 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 3% 99.9%  
6 9% 97%  
7 62% 87% Median
8 20% 25%  
9 5% 5%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 79% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 21%  
2 0% 21%  
3 3% 21%  
4 18% 18%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0.3% 2%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0% 2%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0% 2%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sud chiama Nord (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sud chiama Nord (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 8 0% 7–9 7–10 7–10 6–11

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 2% 100%  
7 23% 98%  
8 41% 75% Median
9 25% 34%  
10 8% 9%  
11 0.8% 0.9%  
12 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations