Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Corriere della Sera, 25–27 March 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 26.6% 24.9–28.5% 24.4–29.0% 23.9–29.4% 23.1–30.3%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 21.5% 19.9–23.2% 19.4–23.7% 19.1–24.2% 18.3–25.0%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 13.8% 12.5–15.3% 12.1–15.7% 11.8–16.1% 11.2–16.8%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 8.4% 7.4–9.6% 7.1–10.0% 6.8–10.3% 6.4–10.9%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.3%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.9–3.9% 1.6–4.3%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.3% 1.8–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.4% 1.3–3.8%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.3% 1.8–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.4% 1.3–3.8%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 23 22–25 21–25 20–25 20–26
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 19 17–20 17–21 17–21 16–22
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 12 11–14 11–14 10–14 10–15
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 8 7–9 6–9 6–10 6–10
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 6 6–7 5–8 5–9 5–9
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
Azione (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.2% 100%  
20 3% 99.8%  
21 5% 97%  
22 39% 92%  
23 24% 53% Median
24 17% 29%  
25 10% 13%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.3% 0.3%  
28 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.2% 100%  
16 1.2% 99.7%  
17 9% 98.6%  
18 25% 89%  
19 21% 65% Median
20 35% 44%  
21 7% 9%  
22 1.3% 1.5%  
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.2% 100%  
10 3% 99.8%  
11 29% 97%  
12 21% 68% Median
13 21% 47%  
14 25% 26%  
15 0.9% 0.9%  
16 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 7% 100%  
7 29% 93%  
8 50% 64% Median
9 10% 14%  
10 5% 5%  
11 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.3% 100%  
5 9% 99.7%  
6 52% 90% Median
7 32% 39%  
8 4% 7%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 83% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 17%  
2 0% 17%  
3 2% 17%  
4 15% 15%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0.1% 2%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 8 0% 7–9 6–9 6–10 6–10

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 7% 100%  
7 29% 93%  
8 50% 64% Median
9 10% 14%  
10 5% 5%  
11 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations