Opinion Poll by Quorum – YouTrend for Sky TG24, 2–4 April 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 28.0% | 26.1–30.1% | 25.5–30.7% | 25.0–31.2% | 24.1–32.3% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 22.5% | 20.7–24.4% | 20.1–25.0% | 19.7–25.5% | 18.9–26.4% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 12.0% | 10.7–13.6% | 10.3–14.1% | 10.0–14.5% | 9.3–15.3% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 9.2% | 8.0–10.6% | 7.7–11.0% | 7.4–11.4% | 6.8–12.1% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 7.7% | 6.6–9.0% | 6.3–9.4% | 6.0–9.8% | 5.6–10.4% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 3.7% | 3.0–4.7% | 2.8–5.0% | 2.6–5.3% | 2.3–5.8% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.1% | 2.4–4.0% | 2.3–4.3% | 2.1–4.5% | 1.8–5.0% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 1.8–3.2% | 1.6–3.4% | 1.5–3.7% | 1.3–4.1% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.7–3.1% | 1.5–3.3% | 1.4–3.5% | 1.2–3.9% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.6–2.9% | 1.4–3.2% | 1.3–3.4% | 1.1–3.8% |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.4–1.5% | 0.3–1.6% | 0.2–1.9% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3–1.0% | 0.2–1.1% | 0.2–1.3% | 0.1–1.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 24 | 22–26 | 21–27 | 21–27 | 20–28 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 19 | 18–21 | 17–22 | 16–23 | 16–23 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 11 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 8–13 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 21 | 6% | 99.3% | |
| 22 | 3% | 93% | |
| 23 | 13% | 90% | |
| 24 | 37% | 77% | Median |
| 25 | 25% | 41% | |
| 26 | 7% | 15% | |
| 27 | 6% | 8% | |
| 28 | 2% | 2% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 4% | 97% | |
| 18 | 23% | 94% | |
| 19 | 24% | 71% | Median |
| 20 | 24% | 47% | |
| 21 | 18% | 23% | |
| 22 | 3% | 5% | |
| 23 | 2% | 3% | |
| 24 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 8 | 1.1% | 99.8% | |
| 9 | 23% | 98.7% | |
| 10 | 26% | 76% | |
| 11 | 30% | 50% | Median |
| 12 | 16% | 20% | |
| 13 | 4% | 5% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 5% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 24% | 95% | |
| 7 | 42% | 72% | Median |
| 8 | 24% | 29% | |
| 9 | 5% | 5% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 11% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 26% | 89% | |
| 7 | 41% | 63% | Median |
| 8 | 19% | 21% | |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 57% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 43% | |
| 2 | 0% | 43% | |
| 3 | 2% | 43% | |
| 4 | 40% | 41% | |
| 5 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 89% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 11% | |
| 2 | 0% | 11% | |
| 3 | 7% | 11% | |
| 4 | 4% | 4% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 3 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.2% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.5% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 11% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 26% | 89% | |
| 7 | 41% | 63% | Median |
| 8 | 19% | 21% | |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Quorum – YouTrend
- Commissioner(s): Sky TG24
- Fieldwork period: 2–4 April 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 806
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.53%