Opinion Poll by SWG for La7, 9–14 April 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 30.0% 28.3–31.7% 27.9–32.2% 27.5–32.7% 26.7–33.5%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 22.0% 20.5–23.6% 20.1–24.1% 19.7–24.4% 19.1–25.2%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 12.5% 11.3–13.8% 11.0–14.2% 10.7–14.5% 10.2–15.2%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 8.8% 7.9–10.0% 7.6–10.3% 7.3–10.6% 6.9–11.2%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 8.7% 7.7–9.8% 7.4–10.1% 7.2–10.4% 6.8–11.0%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 3.6% 3.0–4.4% 2.8–4.6% 2.7–4.8% 2.4–5.2%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.5% 2.9–4.3% 2.7–4.5% 2.6–4.7% 2.3–5.1%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.7% 2.1–3.4% 2.0–3.6% 1.9–3.7% 1.7–4.1%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.3% 1.9–3.0% 1.7–3.2% 1.6–3.4% 1.4–3.7%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.9% 1.5–2.5% 1.4–2.7% 1.3–2.9% 1.1–3.2%
Sud chiama Nord (*) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.2–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 27 25–29 24–29 24–30 23–30
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 20 18–22 18–22 17–22 16–22
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 11 10–13 10–13 10–13 9–14
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 7 6–8 6–8 5–8 5–9
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 8 7–10 7–10 6–10 6–10
Azione (RE) 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–3
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sud chiama Nord (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.9% 99.9%  
24 5% 99.1%  
25 18% 94%  
26 18% 77%  
27 24% 58% Median
28 23% 35%  
29 9% 12%  
30 3% 3%  
31 0.3% 0.4%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.8% 100%  
17 2% 99.2%  
18 13% 97%  
19 27% 84%  
20 24% 57% Median
21 23% 33%  
22 10% 10%  
23 0.3% 0.4%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.1% 100%  
9 2% 99.9%  
10 16% 98%  
11 44% 83% Median
12 26% 39%  
13 12% 13%  
14 1.3% 1.4%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 4% 100%  
6 15% 96%  
7 64% 81% Median
8 15% 17%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 5% 100%  
7 35% 95%  
8 31% 61% Median
9 18% 29%  
10 11% 11%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 70% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 30%  
2 0% 30%  
3 0.6% 30%  
4 26% 30%  
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 78% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 22%  
2 0% 22%  
3 2% 22%  
4 20% 20%  
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.6%  
2 0% 0.6%  
3 0.2% 0.6%  
4 0.4% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sud chiama Nord (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sud chiama Nord (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 8 0% 7–10 7–10 6–10 6–10

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 5% 100%  
7 35% 95%  
8 31% 61% Median
9 18% 29%  
10 11% 11%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations