Opinion Poll by Demopolis, 30 April 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 29.0% 27.2–30.9% 26.7–31.4% 26.3–31.9% 25.4–32.8%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 23.0% 21.4–24.8% 20.9–25.3% 20.5–25.7% 19.7–26.6%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 11.6% 10.4–13.0% 10.0–13.4% 9.8–13.7% 9.2–14.4%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 8.9% 7.8–10.2% 7.5–10.5% 7.3–10.8% 6.8–11.5%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.3%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.3% 1.8–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.4% 1.3–3.8%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 23 22–25 21–25 21–26 20–26
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 18 17–20 17–20 16–21 16–21
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 9 8–10 8–11 8–11 7–12
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 4–8
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 7 6–8 6–8 6–9 5–9
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–3 0–4 0–4 0–4
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.1% 100%  
20 1.1% 99.9%  
21 6% 98.8%  
22 21% 93%  
23 31% 72% Median
24 26% 41%  
25 11% 15%  
26 4% 4%  
27 0.4% 0.4%  
28 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.4% 100%  
16 3% 99.6%  
17 17% 97%  
18 32% 79% Median
19 29% 48%  
20 15% 18%  
21 3% 4%  
22 0.4% 0.4%  
23 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 1.0% 100%  
8 16% 99.0%  
9 42% 83% Median
10 33% 42%  
11 8% 9%  
12 0.7% 0.7%  
13 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.5% 100%  
5 15% 99.5%  
6 48% 85% Median
7 31% 37%  
8 5% 5%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.7% 100%  
6 17% 99.2%  
7 49% 83% Median
8 29% 34%  
9 4% 4%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 77% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 23%  
2 0% 23%  
3 16% 23%  
4 8% 8%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 7 0% 6–8 6–8 6–9 5–9

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.7% 100%  
6 17% 99.2%  
7 49% 83% Median
8 29% 34%  
9 4% 4%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations