Opinion Poll by Noto Sondaggi for Rai 1, 13 May 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 30.8% 29.0–32.7% 28.5–33.3% 28.0–33.7% 27.1–34.7%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 21.4% 19.8–23.1% 19.4–23.6% 19.0–24.1% 18.2–24.9%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 12.9% 11.6–14.4% 11.3–14.8% 11.0–15.1% 10.4–15.9%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 8.5% 7.5–9.7% 7.2–10.1% 6.9–10.4% 6.4–11.0%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.4%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.8–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.1%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.3% 1.8–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.4% 1.3–3.8%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.5% 0.7–2.8%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.5% 0.7–2.8%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 28 26–29 26–30 25–31 24–32
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 19 18–21 17–21 17–22 16–23
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 12 10–13 10–13 10–14 9–14
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 7 6–8 6–8 6–9 5–10
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 7 6–9 6–9 6–9 6–10
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Azione (RE) 0 0 0 0 0–4 0–4
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–3
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.2% 100%  
24 0.8% 99.8%  
25 4% 99.1%  
26 9% 95%  
27 23% 87%  
28 28% 64% Median
29 27% 36%  
30 7% 10%  
31 2% 3%  
32 0.7% 0.8%  
33 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.8% 99.9%  
17 6% 99.1%  
18 15% 94%  
19 32% 78% Median
20 29% 47%  
21 13% 17%  
22 4% 5%  
23 0.5% 0.6%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.7% 100%  
10 13% 99.3%  
11 22% 86%  
12 46% 64% Median
13 15% 18%  
14 3% 3%  
15 0.3% 0.3%  
16 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 1.1% 100%  
6 17% 98.8%  
7 34% 82% Median
8 45% 48%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0.6% 0.6%  
11 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 22% 99.9%  
7 33% 78% Median
8 23% 45%  
9 20% 22%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 76% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 24%  
2 0% 24%  
3 6% 24%  
4 18% 19%  
5 0.9% 1.0%  
6 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 5%  
2 0% 5%  
3 1.1% 5%  
4 3% 4%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.6%  
2 0% 0.6%  
3 0.1% 0.6%  
4 0.5% 0.5%  
5 0% 0%  

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.8%  
2 0% 0.8%  
3 0.2% 0.8%  
4 0.6% 0.6%  
5 0% 0%  

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 7 0% 6–9 6–9 6–9 6–10

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 22% 99.9%  
7 33% 78% Median
8 23% 45%  
9 20% 22%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations