Opinion Poll by Eumetra for La7, 13–14 May 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 30.2% 28.2–32.4% 27.6–33.0% 27.2–33.5% 26.2–34.6%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 21.9% 20.1–23.8% 19.6–24.4% 19.1–24.9% 18.3–25.8%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 12.4% 11.0–14.0% 10.6–14.4% 10.3–14.8% 9.6–15.7%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 8.9% 7.7–10.3% 7.4–10.7% 7.1–11.1% 6.6–11.8%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 8.8% 7.6–10.2% 7.3–10.6% 7.0–10.9% 6.5–11.6%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 3.5% 2.8–4.5% 2.6–4.8% 2.4–5.0% 2.1–5.5%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.5% 2.8–4.5% 2.6–4.8% 2.4–5.0% 2.1–5.5%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.8% 2.1–3.7% 2.0–3.9% 1.8–4.1% 1.6–4.6%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.2% 1.7–3.1% 1.6–3.3% 1.4–3.5% 1.2–4.0%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.8% 1.3–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 1.1–2.9% 0.9–3.3%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0% 0.4–2.3%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.3–1.5% 0.2–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 26 24–30 22–30 22–30 22–31
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 19 18–21 17–22 17–22 16–24
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 12 10–13 9–13 9–13 8–14
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 8 7–9 7–9 6–10 6–11
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 7 6–8 6–9 5–9 5–10
Azione (RE) 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0–4 0–4
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 6% 99.9%  
23 2% 94%  
24 13% 91%  
25 10% 79%  
26 19% 68% Median
27 17% 49%  
28 18% 32%  
29 4% 14%  
30 9% 11%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.2% 100%  
16 2% 99.8%  
17 7% 98%  
18 26% 91%  
19 18% 65% Median
20 28% 47%  
21 14% 19%  
22 4% 6%  
23 0.7% 1.3%  
24 0.6% 0.6%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.7% 100%  
9 6% 99.3%  
10 13% 94%  
11 18% 80%  
12 42% 62% Median
13 19% 21%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.3% 100%  
6 4% 99.7%  
7 22% 95%  
8 56% 73% Median
9 14% 17%  
10 3% 4%  
11 0.5% 0.6%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.2% 100%  
5 4% 99.8%  
6 23% 96%  
7 35% 73% Median
8 30% 38%  
9 6% 8%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 63% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 37%  
2 0% 37%  
3 2% 37%  
4 34% 35%  
5 1.3% 1.4%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 74% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 26%  
2 0% 26%  
3 7% 26%  
4 17% 18%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 4%  
2 0% 4%  
3 1.4% 4%  
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.5%  
2 0% 0.5%  
3 0.1% 0.5%  
4 0.4% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 8 0% 7–9 7–9 6–10 6–11

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.3% 100%  
6 4% 99.7%  
7 22% 95%  
8 56% 73% Median
9 14% 17%  
10 3% 4%  
11 0.5% 0.6%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations