Opinion Poll by SWG for La7, 14–19 May 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 30.3% | 28.7–32.1% | 28.2–32.6% | 27.8–33.0% | 27.0–33.9% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 22.5% | 21.0–24.1% | 20.6–24.6% | 20.2–25.0% | 19.5–25.7% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 12.4% | 11.3–13.7% | 10.9–14.1% | 10.7–14.4% | 10.1–15.1% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 8.4% | 7.5–9.5% | 7.2–9.8% | 7.0–10.1% | 6.5–10.7% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 8.3% | 7.4–9.4% | 7.1–9.8% | 6.9–10.0% | 6.5–10.6% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.7% | 3.0–4.5% | 2.9–4.7% | 2.7–4.9% | 2.5–5.3% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 3.3% | 2.8–4.1% | 2.6–4.3% | 2.5–4.5% | 2.2–4.9% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.7% | 2.1–3.4% | 2.0–3.6% | 1.9–3.7% | 1.7–4.1% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 1.9–3.1% | 1.8–3.3% | 1.7–3.5% | 1.5–3.8% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.2–2.2% | 1.1–2.3% | 1.0–2.5% | 0.9–2.8% |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.2–1.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 27 | 26–29 | 25–30 | 24–30 | 24–31 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 21 | 19–22 | 18–22 | 18–22 | 17–23 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 11 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 9–13 | 9–14 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 8 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 24 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 25 | 6% | 97% | |
| 26 | 10% | 91% | |
| 27 | 47% | 81% | Median |
| 28 | 18% | 34% | |
| 29 | 11% | 17% | |
| 30 | 4% | 6% | |
| 31 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 18 | 7% | 99.3% | |
| 19 | 11% | 92% | |
| 20 | 21% | 82% | |
| 21 | 44% | 61% | Median |
| 22 | 15% | 17% | |
| 23 | 2% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 3% | 100% | |
| 10 | 13% | 97% | |
| 11 | 36% | 84% | Median |
| 12 | 43% | 48% | |
| 13 | 3% | 5% | |
| 14 | 2% | 2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 7% | 100% | |
| 7 | 21% | 93% | |
| 8 | 55% | 72% | Median |
| 9 | 17% | 17% | |
| 10 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 8% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 25% | 92% | |
| 7 | 55% | 67% | Median |
| 8 | 12% | 12% | |
| 9 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 80% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 20% | |
| 2 | 0% | 20% | |
| 3 | 1.0% | 20% | |
| 4 | 18% | 19% | |
| 5 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 91% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 9% | |
| 3 | 2% | 9% | |
| 4 | 7% | 8% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.5% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 1.5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 1.5% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 1.5% | |
| 4 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 8 | 0% | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 7% | 100% | |
| 7 | 21% | 93% | |
| 8 | 55% | 72% | Median |
| 9 | 17% | 17% | |
| 10 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: SWG
- Commissioner(s): La7
- Fieldwork period: 14–19 May 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1200
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.46%