Opinion Poll by SWG for La7, 4–9 June 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 30.7% 29.0–32.4% 28.5–32.9% 28.1–33.3% 27.3–34.2%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 23.4% 21.9–25.0% 21.5–25.5% 21.1–25.9% 20.4–26.7%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 12.5% 11.3–13.8% 11.0–14.2% 10.7–14.5% 10.2–15.2%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 8.0% 7.1–9.1% 6.8–9.4% 6.6–9.7% 6.2–10.2%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 7.9% 7.0–9.0% 6.7–9.3% 6.5–9.6% 6.1–10.1%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.6% 3.0–4.4% 2.8–4.6% 2.7–4.8% 2.4–5.2%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 3.4% 2.8–4.2% 2.7–4.4% 2.5–4.6% 2.3–5.0%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.2% 1.9–3.4% 1.8–3.6% 1.5–3.9%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.3% 1.9–3.0% 1.7–3.2% 1.6–3.4% 1.4–3.7%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.4% 1.1–2.0% 1.0–2.1% 0.9–2.3% 0.7–2.6%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.2–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 27 26–29 25–29 24–30 24–32
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 21 20–23 19–23 19–23 18–24
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 11 10–12 10–14 10–14 9–14
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 6 6–7 5–8 5–8 5–8
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 7 6–9 6–9 6–9 5–9
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4
Azione (RE) 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.1% 100%  
24 3% 99.9%  
25 3% 97%  
26 29% 95%  
27 33% 66% Median
28 18% 33%  
29 10% 15%  
30 2% 5%  
31 0.9% 2%  
32 1.4% 1.4%  
33 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.3% 100%  
18 0.6% 99.7%  
19 5% 99.0%  
20 23% 94%  
21 30% 70% Median
22 29% 40%  
23 11% 12%  
24 0.7% 0.9%  
25 0.3% 0.3%  
26 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 2% 100%  
10 13% 98%  
11 55% 84% Median
12 20% 29%  
13 3% 10%  
14 6% 6%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.4% 100%  
5 6% 99.6%  
6 64% 93% Median
7 22% 29%  
8 7% 7%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.6% 100%  
6 12% 99.4%  
7 60% 88% Median
8 12% 27%  
9 15% 15%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 90% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 10%  
2 0% 10%  
3 1.3% 10%  
4 8% 9%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 63% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 37%  
2 0% 37%  
3 8% 37%  
4 29% 29%  
5 0.6% 0.6%  
6 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.3%  
2 0% 0.3%  
3 0.2% 0.3%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 7 0% 6–9 6–9 6–9 5–9

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.6% 100%  
6 12% 99.4%  
7 60% 88% Median
8 12% 27%  
9 15% 15%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations