Opinion Poll by Demopolis for La7, 25–26 June 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 29.0% 27.7–30.3% 27.4–30.7% 27.0–31.0% 26.4–31.7%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 23.5% 22.3–24.8% 22.0–25.1% 21.7–25.4% 21.1–26.0%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.3% 10.6–13.5% 10.2–14.0%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 8.9% 8.1–9.8% 7.9–10.0% 7.7–10.2% 7.4–10.7%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 8.6% 7.8–9.5% 7.6–9.7% 7.4–9.9% 7.1–10.3%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.6% 3.1–4.2% 3.0–4.4% 2.9–4.5% 2.7–4.8%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.4% 2.0–2.9% 1.9–3.0% 1.8–3.1% 1.6–3.4%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 23 22–24 22–25 22–25 21–26
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 19 18–20 18–20 17–21 17–21
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 10 9–10 9–11 9–11 8–11
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 6 6–7 5–7 5–7 5–8
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 6–8
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–4 0–4
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 100%  
21 2% 99.9%  
22 13% 98%  
23 40% 84% Median
24 34% 44%  
25 9% 10%  
26 0.7% 0.7%  
27 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 4% 99.9%  
18 25% 96%  
19 44% 71% Median
20 25% 27%  
21 3% 3%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 2% 100%  
9 36% 98%  
10 53% 62% Median
11 9% 9%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 8% 100%  
6 64% 92% Median
7 26% 27%  
8 0.8% 0.8%  
9 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 21% 99.9%  
7 65% 79% Median
8 14% 14%  
9 0.4% 0.4%  
10 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 81% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 19%  
2 0% 19%  
3 15% 19%  
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 7 0% 6–8 6–8 6–8 6–8

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 21% 99.9%  
7 65% 79% Median
8 14% 14%  
9 0.4% 0.4%  
10 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations