Opinion Poll by Winpoll, 19–30 June 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 27.6% | 26.2–29.1% | 25.7–29.6% | 25.4–29.9% | 24.7–30.7% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 23.9% | 22.6–25.4% | 22.2–25.8% | 21.8–26.2% | 21.2–26.9% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 11.3% | 10.3–12.5% | 10.1–12.8% | 9.8–13.0% | 9.4–13.6% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 9.0% | 8.1–10.0% | 7.9–10.3% | 7.7–10.6% | 7.2–11.1% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 8.8% | 7.9–9.8% | 7.7–10.1% | 7.5–10.3% | 7.1–10.9% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 3.0–4.3% | 2.9–4.5% | 2.8–4.7% | 2.5–5.0% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 3.5% | 3.0–4.2% | 2.8–4.4% | 2.7–4.6% | 2.5–5.0% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.7% | 2.3–3.4% | 2.1–3.5% | 2.0–3.7% | 1.8–4.0% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 2.0–3.0% | 1.8–3.2% | 1.7–3.3% | 1.5–3.6% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.5–1.9% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–0.9% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.2–1.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 24 | 22–25 | 22–26 | 22–26 | 21–27 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 21 | 20–22 | 19–22 | 19–23 | 18–23 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 10 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 8–12 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 8 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 6–10 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 21 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 22 | 9% | 98% | |
| 23 | 18% | 89% | |
| 24 | 35% | 71% | Median |
| 25 | 26% | 35% | |
| 26 | 9% | 9% | |
| 27 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 18 | 1.3% | 99.8% | |
| 19 | 7% | 98.5% | |
| 20 | 30% | 91% | |
| 21 | 25% | 61% | Median |
| 22 | 32% | 37% | |
| 23 | 4% | 4% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 2% | 100% | |
| 9 | 39% | 98% | |
| 10 | 43% | 59% | Median |
| 11 | 15% | 17% | |
| 12 | 1.4% | 1.5% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 2% | 100% | |
| 7 | 35% | 98% | |
| 8 | 47% | 62% | Median |
| 9 | 14% | 15% | |
| 10 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 6% | 100% | |
| 6 | 36% | 94% | |
| 7 | 47% | 58% | Median |
| 8 | 10% | 10% | |
| 9 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 77% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 23% | |
| 2 | 0% | 23% | |
| 3 | 9% | 23% | |
| 4 | 14% | 14% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 90% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 10% | |
| 2 | 0% | 10% | |
| 3 | 3% | 10% | |
| 4 | 7% | 7% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.3% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 8 | 0% | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 6–10 |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 2% | 100% | |
| 7 | 35% | 98% | |
| 8 | 47% | 62% | Median |
| 9 | 14% | 15% | |
| 10 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Winpoll
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 19–30 June 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1500
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.72%