Opinion Poll by Termometro Politico, 15–17 July 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 29.2% 28.1–30.4% 27.7–30.7% 27.5–31.0% 26.9–31.5%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 22.3% 21.3–23.4% 21.0–23.7% 20.7–24.0% 20.3–24.5%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 12.5% 11.7–13.4% 11.5–13.6% 11.3–13.8% 10.9–14.3%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 8.6% 7.9–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.6–9.8% 7.3–10.1%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 8.4% 7.7–9.1% 7.5–9.3% 7.4–9.5% 7.1–9.9%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.6% 3.1–4.1% 3.0–4.2% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.6–3.5% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.2–4.0%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.4% 2.0–2.8% 1.9–2.9% 1.9–3.0% 1.7–3.3%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.3% 2.0–2.8% 1.9–2.9% 1.8–3.0% 1.7–3.2%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.9% 1.6–2.3% 1.5–2.4% 1.4–2.5% 1.3–2.7%
Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) 0.0% 1.4% 1.1–1.7% 1.1–1.8% 1.0–1.9% 0.9–2.1%
Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.1% 0.9–1.4% 0.8–1.5% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.8%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 1.0% 0.8–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–0.8% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 27 26–27 26–28 26–28 25–29
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 21 20–21 20–21 20–22 19–23
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 12 11–12 11–12 11–13 10–13
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 7 7 6–7 6–8 6–8
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 8 8–9 7–9 7–9 6–9
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0–4 0–4
Azione (RE) 0 0 0 0 0–4 0–4
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 100%  
25 1.5% 99.9%  
26 40% 98%  
27 53% 59% Median
28 5% 6%  
29 0.5% 0.6%  
30 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.1% 100%  
19 1.4% 99.9%  
20 14% 98.5%  
21 81% 84% Median
22 2% 3%  
23 1.2% 1.2%  
24 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 1.2% 100%  
11 12% 98.8%  
12 82% 87% Median
13 4% 4%  
14 0.3% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 8% 100%  
7 87% 92% Median
8 5% 5%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.6% 100%  
7 6% 99.4%  
8 60% 94% Median
9 33% 34%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 4%  
2 0% 4%  
3 0% 4%  
4 4% 4%  
5 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 5%  
2 0% 5%  
3 0% 5%  
4 5% 5%  
5 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 8 0% 8–9 7–9 7–9 6–9

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.6% 100%  
7 6% 99.4%  
8 60% 94% Median
9 33% 34%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations