Opinion Poll by Termometro Politico, 22–24 July 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 29.0% 27.9–30.1% 27.6–30.5% 27.3–30.7% 26.8–31.3%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 22.1% 21.1–23.2% 20.8–23.5% 20.6–23.7% 20.1–24.2%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 12.5% 11.7–13.4% 11.5–13.6% 11.3–13.8% 10.9–14.3%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.8% 7.4–10.2%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 8.4% 7.8–9.1% 7.6–9.3% 7.4–9.5% 7.1–9.9%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.5% 3.1–4.0% 3.0–4.2% 2.9–4.3% 2.7–4.5%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 2.9% 2.5–3.4% 2.4–3.5% 2.3–3.6% 2.1–3.8%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.4% 2.1–2.8% 2.0–3.0% 1.9–3.1% 1.7–3.3%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.3% 2.0–2.7% 1.9–2.8% 1.8–2.9% 1.6–3.2%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) 0.0% 1.4% 1.1–1.8% 1.1–1.8% 1.0–1.9% 0.9–2.1%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 1.0% 0.8–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6%
Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.0% 0.8–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–0.8% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 26 26–28 26–28 26–28 25–29
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 22 21–22 20–22 19–22 19–22
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 12 11–12 11–12 11–12 11–14
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 8 8 8–9 8–9 7–9
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 7 7 7 6–7 6–8
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Azione (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.1% 99.9%  
25 0.4% 99.9%  
26 77% 99.5% Median
27 3% 23%  
28 19% 20%  
29 0.5% 0.6%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 3% 100%  
20 6% 97%  
21 16% 92%  
22 76% 76% Median
23 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.2% 100%  
11 18% 99.7%  
12 79% 81% Median
13 1.3% 2%  
14 0.7% 0.7%  
15 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.7% 100%  
8 93% 99.3% Median
9 7% 7%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.2% 100%  
6 5% 99.8%  
7 94% 95% Median
8 1.4% 1.4%  
9 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0% 2%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 8 0% 8 8–9 8–9 7–9

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.7% 100%  
8 93% 99.3% Median
9 7% 7%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations