Opinion Poll by Demopolis, 28–30 July 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 30.2% 28.9–31.6% 28.5–31.9% 28.2–32.3% 27.6–32.9%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 22.5% 21.3–23.7% 21.0–24.1% 20.7–24.4% 20.2–25.0%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.3% 10.6–13.5% 10.2–14.0%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 8.8% 8.0–9.7% 7.8–9.9% 7.6–10.1% 7.3–10.6%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 8.8% 8.0–9.7% 7.8–9.9% 7.6–10.1% 7.3–10.6%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.4% 3.0–4.0% 2.8–4.2% 2.7–4.3% 2.5–4.6%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.2% 1.9–2.7% 1.8–2.9% 1.7–3.0% 1.5–3.3%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–0.8% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.0% 0.2–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 23 22–24 22–24 21–24 21–25
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 17 16–18 16–18 16–18 15–19
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 9 8–10 8–10 8–10 8–11
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 6 5–6 5–7 5–7 4–7
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 7 6–7 6–8 6–8 6–8
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 100%  
21 4% 99.9%  
22 29% 96%  
23 47% 67% Median
24 17% 19%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 1.5% 100%  
16 20% 98%  
17 51% 78% Median
18 25% 27%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.2% 100%  
8 13% 99.8%  
9 57% 86% Median
10 29% 30%  
11 0.7% 0.7%  
12 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.5% 100%  
5 36% 99.5%  
6 58% 64% Median
7 6% 6%  
8 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.5% 100%  
6 34% 99.5%  
7 60% 65% Median
8 5% 5%  
9 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 10% 100%  
3 79% 90% Median
4 11% 11%  
5 0% 0%  

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 17% 100%  
2 81% 83% Median
3 2% 2%  
4 0% 0%  

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 7 0% 6–7 6–8 6–8 6–8

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.5% 100%  
6 34% 99.5%  
7 60% 65% Median
8 5% 5%  
9 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations