Opinion Poll by Quorum – YouTrend for Sky TG24, 31 July 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 28.6% 26.1–31.3% 25.4–32.1% 24.8–32.7% 23.7–34.0%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 22.2% 20.0–24.7% 19.3–25.4% 18.8–26.1% 17.7–27.3%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 13.4% 11.6–15.5% 11.1–16.1% 10.7–16.7% 9.9–17.7%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 8.4% 7.0–10.2% 6.6–10.7% 6.3–11.2% 5.7–12.1%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 8.4% 7.0–10.2% 6.6–10.7% 6.3–11.2% 5.7–12.1%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 4.2% 3.2–5.6% 3.0–6.0% 2.8–6.3% 2.4–7.1%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.8% 2.9–5.1% 2.7–5.5% 2.5–5.9% 2.1–6.6%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.4% 1.7–3.5% 1.5–3.9% 1.4–4.2% 1.1–4.8%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.4% 1.7–3.5% 1.5–3.9% 1.4–4.2% 1.1–4.8%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.8% 1.2–2.8% 1.1–3.1% 1.0–3.4% 0.7–4.0%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 0.6% 0.3–1.3% 0.3–1.6% 0.2–1.8% 0.1–2.2%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.3–1.3% 0.3–1.6% 0.2–1.8% 0.1–2.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 23 21–26 20–27 20–27 19–30
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 18 16–20 16–21 15–21 15–23
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 11 10–12 9–13 9–14 8–14
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 6 5–7 4–8 4–8 4–9
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 7 6–8 6–9 5–10 5–10
Azione (RE) 0 3 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–6
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 4 3–5 2–5 2–5 2–6
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0–3 0–4
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–3 1–3 1–4 1–4
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.1% 100%  
19 1.2% 99.8%  
20 4% 98.6%  
21 14% 95%  
22 8% 81%  
23 23% 72% Median
24 14% 49%  
25 16% 35%  
26 11% 19%  
27 5% 7%  
28 0.8% 2%  
29 0.1% 1.1%  
30 1.1% 1.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.4% 99.9%  
15 2% 99.5%  
16 14% 97%  
17 18% 83%  
18 28% 66% Median
19 13% 38%  
20 17% 25%  
21 5% 7%  
22 1.3% 2%  
23 1.1% 1.2%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.1% 100%  
8 1.2% 99.9%  
9 7% 98.8%  
10 24% 92%  
11 33% 68% Median
12 27% 35%  
13 5% 8%  
14 2% 3%  
15 0.2% 0.3%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.3% 100%  
4 7% 99.7%  
5 15% 93%  
6 49% 77% Median
7 22% 28%  
8 4% 6%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.2% 100%  
5 3% 99.8%  
6 26% 97%  
7 41% 71% Median
8 21% 30%  
9 4% 9%  
10 5% 5%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 45% 100% Last Result
1 0% 55%  
2 0% 55%  
3 13% 55% Median
4 36% 42%  
5 5% 6%  
6 0.6% 0.6%  
7 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 0.2% 99.9%  
2 6% 99.7%  
3 34% 94%  
4 43% 60% Median
5 16% 17%  
6 0.6% 0.7%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 3%  
2 0% 3%  
3 0.7% 3%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 32% 99.9%  
2 35% 68% Median
3 30% 33%  
4 3% 3%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.3%  
2 0% 0.3%  
3 0.2% 0.3%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 71% 100% Last Result, Median
1 27% 29%  
2 1.1% 1.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 7 0% 6–8 6–9 5–10 5–10

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.2% 100%  
5 3% 99.8%  
6 26% 97%  
7 41% 71% Median
8 21% 30%  
9 4% 9%  
10 5% 5%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations