Opinion Poll by Termometro Politico, 30–31 July 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 28.8% | 27.6–30.0% | 27.3–30.3% | 27.1–30.6% | 26.5–31.2% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 22.3% | 21.3–23.4% | 21.0–23.7% | 20.7–24.0% | 20.2–24.5% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 12.4% | 11.6–13.3% | 11.4–13.5% | 11.2–13.8% | 10.8–14.2% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 8.7% | 8.0–9.5% | 7.8–9.7% | 7.7–9.9% | 7.3–10.3% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 8.5% | 7.8–9.3% | 7.7–9.5% | 7.5–9.7% | 7.2–10.1% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 3.1–4.1% | 3.0–4.2% | 2.9–4.4% | 2.7–4.6% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 3.1% | 2.7–3.6% | 2.6–3.8% | 2.5–3.9% | 2.3–4.1% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 2.0–2.8% | 1.9–2.9% | 1.8–3.0% | 1.7–3.3% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 2.0–2.8% | 1.9–2.9% | 1.8–3.0% | 1.6–3.2% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.5–2.2% | 1.4–2.3% | 1.3–2.4% | 1.2–2.6% |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.8–1.3% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–0.9% | 0.4–0.9% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.3–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 23 | 23–25 | 23–25 | 22–26 | 22–26 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 18 | 17–19 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 16–21 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 10 | 10–11 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 9–12 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 6–8 | 6–9 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–5 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 5% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 53% | 95% | Median |
| 24 | 16% | 42% | |
| 25 | 23% | 26% | |
| 26 | 3% | 3% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 14% | 98.9% | |
| 18 | 59% | 85% | Median |
| 19 | 21% | 26% | |
| 20 | 4% | 5% | |
| 21 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 8% | 100% | |
| 10 | 62% | 92% | Median |
| 11 | 29% | 30% | |
| 12 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 4% | 100% | |
| 7 | 71% | 96% | Median |
| 8 | 24% | 25% | |
| 9 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 11% | 100% | |
| 6 | 39% | 89% | |
| 7 | 50% | 51% | Median |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 3 | 74% | 99.1% | Median |
| 4 | 25% | 25% | |
| 5 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 3 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 7% | 100% | |
| 2 | 53% | 93% | Median |
| 3 | 41% | 41% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 96% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 4% | 4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 7–8 | 7–8 | 6–8 | 6–9 |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 4% | 100% | |
| 7 | 71% | 96% | Median |
| 8 | 24% | 25% | |
| 9 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Termometro Politico
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 30–31 July 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 2500
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.05%