Opinion Poll by Termometro Politico, 5–7 August 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 29.1% 28.0–30.2% 27.7–30.5% 27.5–30.8% 26.9–31.4%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 22.1% 21.1–23.1% 20.8–23.4% 20.6–23.7% 20.1–24.2%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 12.3% 11.5–13.1% 11.3–13.4% 11.1–13.6% 10.8–14.0%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 8.8% 8.1–9.5% 7.9–9.7% 7.8–9.9% 7.5–10.3%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 8.5% 7.8–9.2% 7.7–9.4% 7.5–9.6% 7.2–10.0%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.6% 3.2–4.1% 3.1–4.3% 3.0–4.4% 2.8–4.7%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.6–3.5% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.4% 2.1–2.8% 2.0–2.9% 1.9–3.0% 1.7–3.2%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.4% 2.1–2.8% 2.0–2.9% 1.9–3.0% 1.7–3.2%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.8% 1.5–2.2% 1.4–2.3% 1.4–2.3% 1.2–2.5%
Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) 0.0% 1.4% 1.1–1.7% 1.1–1.8% 1.0–1.9% 0.9–2.1%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 1.1% 0.9–1.4% 0.8–1.5% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.7%
Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.0% 0.8–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.6%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.5–0.9% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 25 25–26 24–26 23–26 23–27
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 19 19–20 18–21 18–21 18–21
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 10 10–12 10–12 10–12 9–12
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 6 6–7 6–7 6–7 5–8
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 7 7–8 7–8 7–8 6–9
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Azione (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–3
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 4% 100%  
24 2% 96%  
25 70% 94% Median
26 22% 24%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.3% 100%  
18 10% 99.7%  
19 61% 90% Median
20 23% 29%  
21 6% 6%  
22 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 1.0% 100%  
10 49% 99.0% Median
11 9% 50%  
12 41% 41%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 2% 100%  
6 55% 98% Median
7 41% 43%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 2% 100%  
7 67% 98% Median
8 30% 32%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 33% 100%  
4 65% 67% Median
5 1.2% 1.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.8% 100%  
2 74% 99.2% Median
3 25% 25%  
4 0% 0%  

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.2% 1.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 7 0% 7–8 7–8 7–8 6–9

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 2% 100%  
7 67% 98% Median
8 30% 32%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations