Opinion Poll by BiDiMedia, 23–25 August 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 28.8% 27.0–30.7% 26.5–31.2% 26.1–31.7% 25.2–32.6%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 22.5% 20.9–24.3% 20.4–24.8% 20.0–25.2% 19.3–26.1%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 12.9% 11.6–14.4% 11.3–14.8% 11.0–15.1% 10.4–15.9%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 8.6% 7.6–9.8% 7.3–10.2% 7.0–10.5% 6.5–11.1%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 8.3% 7.3–9.5% 7.0–9.9% 6.7–10.2% 6.3–10.8%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 2.6% 2.1–3.4% 1.9–3.6% 1.8–3.8% 1.6–4.2%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.8–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.1%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.5% 0.7–2.8%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.3% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1% 0.8–2.2% 0.6–2.5%
Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.6% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–2.0%
Potere al Popolo (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 24 22–25 21–25 21–26 21–28
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 18 17–20 17–20 17–20 16–21
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 11 10–12 9–13 9–13 8–13
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 7 6–8 6–9 6–9 6–9
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 4–8
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 2–5
Azione (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–3
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2–3 2–3 1–3 1–4
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Potere al Popolo (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.2% 100%  
21 5% 99.8%  
22 28% 95%  
23 15% 67%  
24 41% 52% Median
25 7% 11%  
26 2% 4%  
27 1.4% 2%  
28 0.5% 0.5%  
29 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 2% 99.9%  
17 41% 98%  
18 26% 57% Median
19 15% 31%  
20 14% 16%  
21 1.3% 2%  
22 0.3% 0.4%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.6% 100%  
9 6% 99.4%  
10 16% 93%  
11 32% 77% Median
12 36% 46%  
13 9% 10%  
14 0.5% 0.5%  
15 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 12% 99.9%  
7 54% 88% Median
8 29% 34%  
9 5% 5%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 100%  
5 15% 98%  
6 42% 83% Median
7 40% 42%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 2% 100%  
3 36% 98%  
4 43% 62% Median
5 19% 19%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 1.1%  
2 0% 1.1%  
3 0.8% 1.1%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 5% 100%  
2 67% 95% Median
3 27% 29%  
4 1.1% 1.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Potere al Popolo (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Potere al Popolo (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 60% 100% Last Result, Median
1 40% 40%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 7 0% 6–8 6–9 6–9 6–9

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 12% 99.9%  
7 54% 88% Median
8 29% 34%  
9 5% 5%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations