Opinion Poll by Quorum – YouTrend for Sky TG24, 3–5 September 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 28.4% | 26.5–30.6% | 25.9–31.2% | 25.4–31.7% | 24.5–32.7% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 21.1% | 19.4–23.1% | 18.9–23.6% | 18.4–24.1% | 17.6–25.0% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 13.5% | 12.1–15.2% | 11.7–15.7% | 11.3–16.1% | 10.7–16.9% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 8.3% | 7.2–9.7% | 6.9–10.1% | 6.6–10.4% | 6.1–11.1% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 8.0% | 6.8–9.3% | 6.5–9.7% | 6.3–10.0% | 5.8–10.7% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 4.8% | 4.0–6.0% | 3.8–6.3% | 3.6–6.6% | 3.2–7.1% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 4.1% | 3.3–5.2% | 3.1–5.4% | 2.9–5.7% | 2.6–6.2% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.7% | 2.1–3.6% | 2.0–3.9% | 1.8–4.1% | 1.6–4.6% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 1.7% | 1.3–2.5% | 1.1–2.7% | 1.0–2.9% | 0.9–3.3% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.1–2.2% | 0.9–2.4% | 0.9–2.6% | 0.7–3.0% |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.4–1.5% | 0.3–1.6% | 0.2–1.9% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.3–1.4% | 0.2–1.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 23 | 21–24 | 20–25 | 20–25 | 20–26 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 16 | 15–18 | 15–18 | 15–19 | 14–20 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 11 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 9–14 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 3–7 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 4 | 3–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–5 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 1–4 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 6% | 99.6% | |
| 21 | 9% | 94% | |
| 22 | 32% | 85% | |
| 23 | 17% | 53% | Median |
| 24 | 30% | 36% | |
| 25 | 4% | 6% | |
| 26 | 2% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 14 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 15 | 17% | 98% | |
| 16 | 35% | 81% | Median |
| 17 | 31% | 46% | |
| 18 | 10% | 15% | |
| 19 | 3% | 5% | |
| 20 | 2% | 2% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 9 | 17% | 99.7% | |
| 10 | 30% | 83% | |
| 11 | 40% | 53% | Median |
| 12 | 7% | 13% | |
| 13 | 4% | 6% | |
| 14 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 8% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 21% | 92% | |
| 7 | 60% | 71% | Median |
| 8 | 10% | 11% | |
| 9 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 13% | 98.9% | |
| 5 | 29% | 86% | |
| 6 | 46% | 57% | Median |
| 7 | 10% | 11% | |
| 8 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 91% | |
| 2 | 0% | 91% | |
| 3 | 13% | 91% | |
| 4 | 52% | 78% | Median |
| 5 | 24% | 25% | |
| 6 | 2% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 37% | 98% | |
| 4 | 56% | 61% | Median |
| 5 | 5% | 5% | |
| 6 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 42% | 98% | |
| 3 | 53% | 56% | Median |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 86% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 14% | 14% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 8% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 21% | 92% | |
| 7 | 60% | 71% | Median |
| 8 | 10% | 11% | |
| 9 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Quorum – YouTrend
- Commissioner(s): Sky TG24
- Fieldwork period: 3–5 September 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 805
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.42%