Opinion Poll by Eumetra for La7, 9–10 September 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 29.6% | 27.6–31.8% | 27.0–32.4% | 26.6–32.9% | 25.6–33.9% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 22.0% | 20.2–24.0% | 19.7–24.5% | 19.3–25.0% | 18.4–26.0% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 13.5% | 12.1–15.2% | 11.6–15.6% | 11.3–16.0% | 10.6–16.9% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 8.4% | 7.2–9.8% | 6.9–10.2% | 6.6–10.5% | 6.1–11.2% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 8.2% | 7.1–9.6% | 6.8–10.0% | 6.5–10.4% | 6.0–11.1% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.2–5.0% | 3.0–5.3% | 2.9–5.6% | 2.5–6.1% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.8% | 3.0–4.8% | 2.8–5.1% | 2.6–5.3% | 2.3–5.8% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 1.9–3.4% | 1.8–3.6% | 1.6–3.8% | 1.4–4.3% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.7–3.1% | 1.6–3.3% | 1.4–3.5% | 1.2–4.0% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.3–2.5% | 1.1–2.7% | 1.1–2.9% | 0.9–3.3% |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% | 0.4–2.3% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.3–1.5% | 0.2–1.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 25 | 22–26 | 22–27 | 22–27 | 21–28 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 18 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 15–21 | 15–22 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 11 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–13 | 9–14 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 6–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 | 4–9 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 3 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–4 | 1–4 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 21 | 1.3% | 99.8% | |
| 22 | 13% | 98% | |
| 23 | 12% | 86% | |
| 24 | 21% | 74% | |
| 25 | 20% | 52% | Median |
| 26 | 26% | 32% | |
| 27 | 5% | 6% | |
| 28 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 29 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 15 | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 16 | 10% | 96% | |
| 17 | 28% | 86% | |
| 18 | 22% | 58% | Median |
| 19 | 25% | 36% | |
| 20 | 8% | 11% | |
| 21 | 2% | 3% | |
| 22 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 9 | 4% | 99.5% | |
| 10 | 30% | 95% | |
| 11 | 34% | 66% | Median |
| 12 | 21% | 32% | |
| 13 | 10% | 11% | |
| 14 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 5% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 14% | 95% | |
| 7 | 32% | 81% | Median |
| 8 | 40% | 49% | |
| 9 | 8% | 9% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 6% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 23% | 94% | |
| 6 | 50% | 71% | Median |
| 7 | 18% | 21% | |
| 8 | 2% | 3% | |
| 9 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 46% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 54% | |
| 2 | 0% | 54% | |
| 3 | 6% | 54% | Median |
| 4 | 37% | 48% | |
| 5 | 11% | 11% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 4% | 100% | |
| 3 | 37% | 96% | |
| 4 | 42% | 59% | Median |
| 5 | 17% | 17% | |
| 6 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 16% | 100% | |
| 2 | 51% | 84% | Median |
| 3 | 30% | 33% | |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 82% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 18% | 18% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 6–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 5% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 14% | 95% | |
| 7 | 32% | 81% | Median |
| 8 | 40% | 49% | |
| 9 | 8% | 9% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Eumetra
- Commissioner(s): La7
- Fieldwork period: 9–10 September 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 800
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.39%