Opinion Poll by Termometro Politico, 9–11 September 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 29.7% 28.6–30.8% 28.3–31.2% 28.0–31.5% 27.5–32.0%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 22.1% 21.1–23.2% 20.8–23.5% 20.6–23.7% 20.1–24.2%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 12.3% 11.5–13.2% 11.3–13.4% 11.1–13.6% 10.7–14.0%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 8.6% 7.9–9.3% 7.7–9.5% 7.6–9.7% 7.3–10.1%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 8.6% 7.9–9.3% 7.7–9.5% 7.6–9.7% 7.3–10.1%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.5% 3.1–4.0% 3.0–4.2% 2.9–4.3% 2.7–4.5%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 2.9% 2.5–3.4% 2.4–3.5% 2.3–3.6% 2.1–3.8%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.3% 2.0–2.7% 1.9–2.8% 1.8–2.9% 1.6–3.2%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.3% 2.0–2.7% 1.9–2.8% 1.8–2.9% 1.6–3.2%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.8% 1.5–2.2% 1.4–2.3% 1.4–2.4% 1.2–2.6%
Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) 0.0% 1.4% 1.1–1.8% 1.1–1.8% 1.0–1.9% 0.9–2.1%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 1.0% 0.8–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6%
Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 0.9% 0.7–1.2% 0.6–1.2% 0.6–1.3% 0.5–1.5%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–0.8% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 26 25–27 25–27 24–27 24–28
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 20 18–20 18–20 18–20 18–21
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 10 10–11 10–11 10–12 9–12
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 6 6–7 6–7 6–7 5–8
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 7 7–8 7–8 7–8 6–9
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Azione (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–3
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.1% 100%  
24 3% 99.9%  
25 18% 97%  
26 59% 79% Median
27 18% 20%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.1% 100%  
18 22% 99.9%  
19 19% 78%  
20 58% 58% Median
21 0.9% 0.9%  
22 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 1.1% 100%  
10 61% 98.9% Median
11 34% 37%  
12 3% 3%  
13 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.7% 100%  
6 74% 99.3% Median
7 24% 25%  
8 0.7% 0.7%  
9 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 1.3% 100%  
7 85% 98.7% Median
8 13% 13%  
9 0.9% 0.9%  
10 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 31% 99.9%  
4 68% 68% Median
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 1.0% 100%  
2 82% 99.0% Median
3 17% 17%  
4 0% 0%  

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 7 0% 7–8 7–8 7–8 6–9

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 1.3% 100%  
7 85% 98.7% Median
8 13% 13%  
9 0.9% 0.9%  
10 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations