Opinion Poll by Eumetra for La7, 16–17 September 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 29.9% | 27.9–32.0% | 27.3–32.6% | 26.8–33.2% | 25.8–34.2% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 21.8% | 20.0–23.7% | 19.4–24.3% | 19.0–24.8% | 18.2–25.7% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 13.2% | 11.8–14.9% | 11.4–15.4% | 11.1–15.8% | 10.4–16.6% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 8.6% | 7.5–10.0% | 7.1–10.4% | 6.9–10.8% | 6.4–11.5% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 8.1% | 7.0–9.5% | 6.7–9.9% | 6.4–10.2% | 5.9–10.9% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.2–5.0% | 3.0–5.3% | 2.9–5.6% | 2.5–6.1% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 2.9–4.6% | 2.7–4.9% | 2.5–5.2% | 2.2–5.7% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 1.8–3.2% | 1.6–3.5% | 1.5–3.7% | 1.3–4.1% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.7–3.1% | 1.6–3.3% | 1.4–3.5% | 1.2–4.0% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.4–2.7% | 1.2–2.9% | 1.1–3.1% | 0.9–3.5% |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% | 0.4–2.3% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.3–1.5% | 0.2–1.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 24 | 23–27 | 22–27 | 22–28 | 21–28 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 18 | 17–20 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 15–21 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 11 | 10–13 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 9–14 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–10 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 | 4–8 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–4 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 22 | 9% | 99.3% | |
| 23 | 9% | 91% | |
| 24 | 40% | 81% | Median |
| 25 | 15% | 41% | |
| 26 | 16% | 26% | |
| 27 | 8% | 11% | |
| 28 | 3% | 3% | |
| 29 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 7% | 99.0% | |
| 17 | 14% | 92% | |
| 18 | 32% | 78% | Median |
| 19 | 21% | 46% | |
| 20 | 24% | 25% | |
| 21 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 9 | 6% | 99.8% | |
| 10 | 24% | 94% | |
| 11 | 43% | 69% | Median |
| 12 | 17% | 27% | |
| 13 | 9% | 10% | |
| 14 | 2% | 2% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 13% | 98% | |
| 7 | 36% | 85% | Median |
| 8 | 40% | 48% | |
| 9 | 7% | 8% | |
| 10 | 1.4% | 1.5% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 21% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 23% | 79% | |
| 6 | 37% | 56% | Median |
| 7 | 16% | 19% | |
| 8 | 3% | 3% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 50% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 50% | |
| 2 | 0% | 50% | |
| 3 | 12% | 50% | |
| 4 | 36% | 38% | |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 7% | 100% | |
| 3 | 63% | 93% | Median |
| 4 | 26% | 29% | |
| 5 | 3% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 8% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 44% | 92% | Median |
| 3 | 46% | 48% | |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 60% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 40% | 40% | |
| 2 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 6–8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–10 |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 13% | 98% | |
| 7 | 36% | 85% | Median |
| 8 | 40% | 48% | |
| 9 | 7% | 8% | |
| 10 | 1.4% | 1.5% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Eumetra
- Commissioner(s): La7
- Fieldwork period: 16–17 September 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 800
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.69%