Opinion Poll by Demos & Pi for La Repubblica, 15–18 September 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 29.8% | 28.0–31.6% | 27.5–32.2% | 27.0–32.6% | 26.2–33.5% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 21.7% | 20.1–23.4% | 19.7–23.9% | 19.3–24.3% | 18.5–25.2% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 13.2% | 11.9–14.7% | 11.6–15.1% | 11.3–15.5% | 10.7–16.2% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 8.6% | 7.5–9.8% | 7.2–10.1% | 7.0–10.4% | 6.5–11.1% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 8.4% | 7.3–9.6% | 7.1–9.9% | 6.8–10.2% | 6.4–10.8% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.3% | 2.7–4.1% | 2.5–4.4% | 2.4–4.6% | 2.1–5.0% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.6–4.0% | 2.4–4.3% | 2.3–4.5% | 2.0–4.9% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.8–3.1% | 1.7–3.3% | 1.6–3.5% | 1.4–3.8% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.7–3.0% | 1.6–3.2% | 1.5–3.3% | 1.3–3.7% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.5% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.2–1.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 24 | 23–26 | 22–26 | 22–27 | 21–28 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 18 | 17–19 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 15–20 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 11 | 10–12 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 9–13 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 5–9 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–8 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 22 | 4% | 99.0% | |
| 23 | 28% | 95% | |
| 24 | 28% | 67% | Median |
| 25 | 24% | 39% | |
| 26 | 11% | 15% | |
| 27 | 3% | 4% | |
| 28 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 29 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 8% | 99.2% | |
| 17 | 16% | 91% | |
| 18 | 55% | 75% | Median |
| 19 | 14% | 20% | |
| 20 | 5% | 5% | |
| 21 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 7% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 14% | 93% | |
| 11 | 63% | 79% | Median |
| 12 | 11% | 16% | |
| 13 | 5% | 5% | |
| 14 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 12% | 98% | |
| 7 | 66% | 86% | Median |
| 8 | 16% | 20% | |
| 9 | 4% | 4% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 25% | 98% | |
| 6 | 60% | 73% | Median |
| 7 | 12% | 13% | |
| 8 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 26% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 59% | 74% | Median |
| 4 | 14% | 15% | |
| 5 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 93% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 7% | |
| 3 | 4% | 7% | |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 9% | 100% | |
| 2 | 72% | 91% | Median |
| 3 | 18% | 18% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 73% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 27% | 27% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 5–9 |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 12% | 98% | |
| 7 | 66% | 86% | Median |
| 8 | 16% | 20% | |
| 9 | 4% | 4% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Demos & Pi
- Commissioner(s): La Repubblica
- Fieldwork period: 15–18 September 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1028
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.28%