Opinion Poll by SWG for La7, 24–29 September 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 30.5% | 28.8–32.3% | 28.4–32.7% | 28.0–33.2% | 27.2–34.0% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 22.1% | 20.6–23.7% | 20.2–24.1% | 19.8–24.5% | 19.1–25.3% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 13.7% | 12.5–15.0% | 12.1–15.4% | 11.8–15.7% | 11.3–16.4% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 9.0% | 8.0–10.2% | 7.7–10.5% | 7.5–10.8% | 7.1–11.3% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 8.0% | 7.1–9.1% | 6.8–9.4% | 6.6–9.7% | 6.2–10.2% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 3.0–4.4% | 2.8–4.6% | 2.7–4.8% | 2.4–5.2% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 3.1% | 2.5–3.8% | 2.4–4.0% | 2.2–4.2% | 2.0–4.6% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.9–3.0% | 1.7–3.2% | 1.6–3.4% | 1.4–3.7% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.7–2.8% | 1.6–3.0% | 1.5–3.2% | 1.3–3.5% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.5–2.5% | 1.4–2.7% | 1.3–2.9% | 1.1–3.2% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.2–1.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 26 | 24–27 | 24–27 | 23–28 | 22–28 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 19 | 18–19 | 17–20 | 17–21 | 16–21 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 11 | 11–12 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 10–14 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 8 | 7–8 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–8 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–4 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 23 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 24 | 7% | 97% | |
| 25 | 33% | 90% | |
| 26 | 24% | 57% | Median |
| 27 | 30% | 33% | |
| 28 | 3% | 3% | |
| 29 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 6% | 98% | |
| 18 | 38% | 92% | |
| 19 | 46% | 55% | Median |
| 20 | 6% | 9% | |
| 21 | 3% | 4% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 10 | 6% | 99.5% | |
| 11 | 48% | 94% | Median |
| 12 | 40% | 46% | |
| 13 | 4% | 5% | |
| 14 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 4% | 100% | |
| 7 | 43% | 96% | |
| 8 | 46% | 53% | Median |
| 9 | 7% | 7% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 1.5% | 100% | |
| 5 | 44% | 98.5% | |
| 6 | 45% | 55% | Median |
| 7 | 9% | 10% | |
| 8 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 29% | 97% | |
| 4 | 65% | 68% | Median |
| 5 | 3% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 3% | |
| 3 | 2% | 3% | |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 10% | 100% | |
| 2 | 81% | 90% | Median |
| 3 | 8% | 8% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 90% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 10% | 10% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 8 | 0% | 7–8 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 4% | 100% | |
| 7 | 43% | 96% | |
| 8 | 46% | 53% | Median |
| 9 | 7% | 7% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: SWG
- Commissioner(s): La7
- Fieldwork period: 24–29 September 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1200
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.10%