Opinion Poll by SWG for La7, 1–6 October 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 30.8% | 29.2–32.6% | 28.7–33.1% | 28.3–33.5% | 27.5–34.4% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 21.9% | 20.4–23.5% | 20.0–24.0% | 19.7–24.4% | 19.0–25.1% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 13.6% | 12.4–14.9% | 12.0–15.3% | 11.8–15.7% | 11.2–16.3% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 8.8% | 7.9–10.0% | 7.6–10.3% | 7.3–10.6% | 6.9–11.2% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 8.0% | 7.1–9.1% | 6.8–9.4% | 6.6–9.7% | 6.2–10.2% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.8% | 3.1–4.6% | 3.0–4.8% | 2.8–5.0% | 2.5–5.4% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.7% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.2–4.1% | 1.9–4.5% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 1.9–3.1% | 1.8–3.3% | 1.7–3.5% | 1.5–3.8% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.7–2.8% | 1.6–3.0% | 1.5–3.2% | 1.3–3.5% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.4–2.4% | 1.3–2.6% | 1.2–2.8% | 1.0–3.1% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.2–1.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 26 | 24–27 | 24–28 | 24–28 | 23–28 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 18 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 16–20 | 16–21 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 11 | 10–12 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–14 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 7–8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 2–5 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 23 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 24 | 8% | 98% | |
| 25 | 24% | 90% | |
| 26 | 42% | 66% | Median |
| 27 | 17% | 24% | |
| 28 | 6% | 6% | |
| 29 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 16 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 17 | 8% | 96% | |
| 18 | 50% | 88% | Median |
| 19 | 20% | 38% | |
| 20 | 17% | 18% | |
| 21 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 10 | 13% | 99.3% | |
| 11 | 50% | 86% | Median |
| 12 | 29% | 36% | |
| 13 | 7% | 7% | |
| 14 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 8% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 43% | 92% | Median |
| 8 | 42% | 49% | |
| 9 | 7% | 7% | |
| 10 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 4% | 100% | |
| 5 | 23% | 96% | |
| 6 | 56% | 73% | Median |
| 7 | 17% | 17% | |
| 8 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 3 | 51% | 98.6% | Median |
| 4 | 43% | 48% | |
| 5 | 5% | 5% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 4 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 6% | 100% | |
| 2 | 63% | 94% | Median |
| 3 | 32% | 32% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 92% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 8% | 8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 7–8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 8% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 43% | 92% | Median |
| 8 | 42% | 49% | |
| 9 | 7% | 7% | |
| 10 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: SWG
- Commissioner(s): La7
- Fieldwork period: 1–6 October 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1200
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.40%