Opinion Poll by Demopolis for La7, 13–14 October 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 30.2% | 28.7–31.7% | 28.3–32.2% | 28.0–32.5% | 27.3–33.3% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 23.0% | 21.6–24.4% | 21.3–24.8% | 20.9–25.2% | 20.3–25.8% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 12.4% | 11.4–13.5% | 11.1–13.9% | 10.8–14.1% | 10.4–14.7% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 8.8% | 8.0–9.8% | 7.7–10.1% | 7.5–10.4% | 7.1–10.9% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 8.5% | 7.7–9.5% | 7.4–9.8% | 7.2–10.0% | 6.8–10.5% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.7% | 3.1–4.4% | 3.0–4.6% | 2.9–4.8% | 2.6–5.1% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.3–3.4% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.1–3.7% | 1.9–4.1% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.1–3.1% | 2.0–3.3% | 1.9–3.4% | 1.7–3.8% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 2.0–3.0% | 1.8–3.2% | 1.7–3.3% | 1.6–3.6% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–0.9% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.2–1.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 24 | 23–25 | 23–25 | 23–26 | 22–27 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 19 | 18–19 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 16–21 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 10 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 8–12 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–5 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 22 | 1.4% | 99.8% | |
| 23 | 22% | 98% | |
| 24 | 57% | 76% | Median |
| 25 | 15% | 19% | |
| 26 | 3% | 3% | |
| 27 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 17 | 9% | 99.3% | |
| 18 | 34% | 90% | |
| 19 | 47% | 57% | Median |
| 20 | 9% | 10% | |
| 21 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 9 | 35% | 98.8% | |
| 10 | 43% | 63% | Median |
| 11 | 20% | 21% | |
| 12 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 16% | 99.8% | |
| 6 | 60% | 84% | Median |
| 7 | 23% | 24% | |
| 8 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 6 | 18% | 99.5% | |
| 7 | 70% | 81% | Median |
| 8 | 12% | 12% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 64% | 98% | Median |
| 4 | 33% | 34% | |
| 5 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 6% | 100% | |
| 2 | 72% | 94% | Median |
| 3 | 21% | 21% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 93% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 7% | 7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 6 | 18% | 99.5% | |
| 7 | 70% | 81% | Median |
| 8 | 12% | 12% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Demopolis
- Commissioner(s): La7
- Fieldwork period: 13–14 October 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1540
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.30%