Opinion Poll by Termometro Politico, 14–16 October 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 29.8% 28.7–30.9% 28.4–31.2% 28.2–31.5% 27.7–32.0%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 22.0% 21.0–23.0% 20.8–23.3% 20.5–23.5% 20.1–24.0%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 12.1% 11.4–12.9% 11.2–13.1% 11.0–13.3% 10.6–13.7%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 8.6% 8.0–9.3% 7.8–9.5% 7.6–9.7% 7.3–10.0%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 8.6% 8.0–9.3% 7.8–9.5% 7.6–9.7% 7.3–10.0%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.5% 3.1–4.0% 3.0–4.1% 2.9–4.3% 2.7–4.5%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 3.1% 2.7–3.6% 2.6–3.7% 2.5–3.8% 2.4–4.0%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.4% 2.1–2.8% 2.0–2.9% 1.9–3.0% 1.8–3.2%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.3% 2.0–2.7% 1.9–2.8% 1.8–2.9% 1.7–3.1%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.8% 1.5–2.2% 1.4–2.3% 1.4–2.3% 1.2–2.5%
Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) 0.0% 1.4% 1.2–1.7% 1.1–1.8% 1.0–1.9% 0.9–2.1%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 1.1% 0.9–1.4% 0.8–1.5% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.7%
Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.1% 0.9–1.4% 0.8–1.5% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.7%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–0.8% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–0.9% 0.3–1.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 25 25–27 25–27 25–27 24–27
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 20 18–20 18–20 18–20 18–20
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 10 10–11 10–11 10–11 9–12
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 6 6–7 6–7 6–7 6–8
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 8 7–9 7–9 7–9 7–9
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 3 3–4 2–4 2–4 2–5
Azione (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.1% 100%  
24 2% 99.9%  
25 64% 98% Median
26 24% 34%  
27 10% 10%  
28 0.3% 0.3%  
29 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.2% 100%  
18 11% 99.8%  
19 25% 89%  
20 64% 64% Median
21 0.4% 0.4%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 2% 100%  
10 71% 98% Median
11 26% 27%  
12 0.9% 0.9%  
13 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 66% 99.9% Median
7 32% 34%  
8 1.4% 1.4%  
9 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.4% 100%  
7 34% 99.6%  
8 50% 65% Median
9 15% 15%  
10 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 7% 100%  
3 65% 93% Median
4 27% 28%  
5 0.7% 0.7%  
6 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.4%  
2 0% 0.4%  
3 0.3% 0.4%  
4 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 10% 100%  
2 41% 90% Median
3 49% 49%  
4 0% 0%  

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.6% 0.6%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 8 0% 7–9 7–9 7–9 7–9

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.4% 100%  
7 34% 99.6%  
8 50% 65% Median
9 15% 15%  
10 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations