Opinion Poll by Tecnè for Agenzia Dire, 29–30 October 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 31.0% | 29.2–32.9% | 28.7–33.5% | 28.2–33.9% | 27.3–34.9% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 21.6% | 20.0–23.4% | 19.5–23.8% | 19.2–24.3% | 18.4–25.1% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 11.6% | 10.4–13.0% | 10.0–13.4% | 9.8–13.7% | 9.2–14.4% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 11.2% | 10.0–12.6% | 9.7–13.0% | 9.4–13.3% | 8.8–14.0% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 8.4% | 7.4–9.6% | 7.1–10.0% | 6.8–10.3% | 6.4–10.9% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 3.5% | 2.9–4.4% | 2.7–4.6% | 2.5–4.8% | 2.2–5.3% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.4% | 2.8–4.3% | 2.6–4.5% | 2.4–4.7% | 2.2–5.2% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.7–2.9% | 1.6–3.1% | 1.4–3.3% | 1.2–3.7% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.6–2.8% | 1.5–3.0% | 1.4–3.2% | 1.2–3.6% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.0–2.0% | 0.9–2.2% | 0.8–2.3% | 0.7–2.7% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.2–1.2% | 0.2–1.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 26 | 24–27 | 23–28 | 23–28 | 22–30 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 18 | 16–19 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 15–21 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 10 | 9–11 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–12 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 9 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 6–11 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–9 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 23 | 7% | 99.2% | |
| 24 | 10% | 93% | |
| 25 | 19% | 82% | |
| 26 | 20% | 63% | Median |
| 27 | 37% | 43% | |
| 28 | 5% | 6% | |
| 29 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 30 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 11% | 98.9% | |
| 17 | 36% | 88% | |
| 18 | 26% | 52% | Median |
| 19 | 17% | 27% | |
| 20 | 8% | 10% | |
| 21 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 8 | 8% | 99.6% | |
| 9 | 34% | 91% | |
| 10 | 46% | 57% | Median |
| 11 | 10% | 11% | |
| 12 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 2% | 100% | |
| 7 | 18% | 98% | |
| 8 | 28% | 79% | |
| 9 | 37% | 51% | Median |
| 10 | 13% | 14% | |
| 11 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 11% | 98% | |
| 7 | 57% | 87% | Median |
| 8 | 29% | 30% | |
| 9 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 79% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 21% | |
| 2 | 0% | 21% | |
| 3 | 11% | 21% | |
| 4 | 9% | 9% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 10% | 100% | |
| 3 | 46% | 90% | Median |
| 4 | 42% | 44% | |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 38% | 100% | |
| 2 | 50% | 62% | Median |
| 3 | 12% | 12% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 93% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 7% | 7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–9 |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 11% | 98% | |
| 7 | 57% | 87% | Median |
| 8 | 29% | 30% | |
| 9 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Tecnè
- Commissioner(s): Agenzia Dire
- Fieldwork period: 29–30 October 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.60%