Opinion Poll by YouTrend for Sky TG24, 30–31 October 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 29.4% 27.4–31.5% 26.8–32.1% 26.3–32.6% 25.4–33.7%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 20.6% 18.9–22.6% 18.4–23.1% 18.0–23.6% 17.1–24.5%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 13.6% 12.2–15.3% 11.8–15.8% 11.4–16.2% 10.8–17.0%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 9.0% 7.8–10.4% 7.5–10.8% 7.2–11.2% 6.7–11.9%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 7.8% 6.7–9.1% 6.3–9.5% 6.1–9.8% 5.6–10.5%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 4.5% 3.7–5.6% 3.5–5.9% 3.3–6.2% 2.9–6.7%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.6% 2.9–4.6% 2.7–4.9% 2.5–5.2% 2.2–5.7%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.4% 1.8–3.2% 1.6–3.5% 1.5–3.7% 1.3–4.1%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.8% 1.4–3.0% 1.2–3.2% 1.0–3.7%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.4% 1.1–2.6% 0.9–2.8% 0.8–3.2%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.8% 0.7–2.0% 0.6–2.1% 0.5–2.5%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.3–1.5% 0.2–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 24 22–26 22–26 21–27 20–29
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 17 15–18 15–19 15–19 14–20
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 11 10–12 10–13 9–13 8–14
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 5–9
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 7 5–8 5–8 5–8 4–8
Azione (RE) 0 4 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–5
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 3 3–5 3–5 2–5 2–5
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–4
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 2% 100%  
21 2% 98%  
22 12% 96%  
23 8% 84%  
24 55% 76% Median
25 7% 21%  
26 11% 14%  
27 2% 3%  
28 0.5% 1.3%  
29 0.8% 0.8%  
30 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.2% 100%  
14 1.4% 99.8%  
15 16% 98%  
16 32% 83%  
17 31% 51% Median
18 11% 20%  
19 8% 9%  
20 0.6% 0.9%  
21 0.3% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 1.0% 100%  
9 3% 99.0%  
10 14% 96%  
11 57% 82% Median
12 19% 25%  
13 5% 6%  
14 0.6% 0.7%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.4% 100%  
5 13% 99.6%  
6 39% 86% Median
7 41% 47%  
8 5% 6%  
9 0.5% 0.6%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 1.0% 100%  
5 9% 99.0%  
6 26% 90%  
7 52% 64% Median
8 13% 13%  
9 0.2% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 28% 100% Last Result
1 0% 72%  
2 0% 72%  
3 6% 72%  
4 55% 66% Median
5 11% 11%  
6 0.4% 0.4%  
7 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 4% 100%  
3 65% 96% Median
4 20% 31%  
5 10% 10%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 12% 100%  
2 63% 88% Median
3 24% 25%  
4 1.0% 1.0%  
5 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 74% 100% Last Result, Median
1 26% 26%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 7 0% 5–8 5–8 5–8 4–8

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 1.0% 100%  
5 9% 99.0%  
6 26% 90%  
7 52% 64% Median
8 13% 13%  
9 0.2% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations