Opinion Poll by BiDiMedia, 30 October–2 November 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 29.5% | 27.7–31.4% | 27.2–31.9% | 26.7–32.4% | 25.9–33.3% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 22.2% | 20.6–24.0% | 20.1–24.4% | 19.7–24.9% | 19.0–25.7% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 12.5% | 11.2–13.9% | 10.9–14.3% | 10.6–14.7% | 10.0–15.4% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 8.3% | 7.3–9.5% | 7.0–9.9% | 6.7–10.2% | 6.3–10.8% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 8.1% | 7.1–9.3% | 6.8–9.7% | 6.6–10.0% | 6.1–10.6% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.8% | 3.1–4.7% | 2.9–5.0% | 2.8–5.2% | 2.5–5.6% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.1–3.8% | 1.9–4.0% | 1.7–4.4% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.0–3.3% | 1.8–3.5% | 1.7–3.7% | 1.5–4.1% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.8–3.0% | 1.6–3.2% | 1.5–3.4% | 1.3–3.8% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–2.0% | 0.5–2.3% |
| Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.6–1.4% | 0.5–1.6% | 0.5–1.7% | 0.4–2.0% |
| Potere al Popolo (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.4–1.6% | 0.3–1.9% |
| Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.2–1.6% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.2–1.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 26 | 24–29 | 23–29 | 22–29 | 21–29 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 18 | 17–20 | 17–21 | 17–22 | 16–23 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 10 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 9–14 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 5–7 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 4–8 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–4 | 1–4 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Potere al Popolo (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 22 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 23 | 5% | 97% | |
| 24 | 10% | 92% | |
| 25 | 19% | 81% | |
| 26 | 13% | 62% | Median |
| 27 | 10% | 50% | |
| 28 | 14% | 40% | |
| 29 | 26% | 26% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 32% | 98% | |
| 18 | 16% | 66% | Median |
| 19 | 29% | 50% | |
| 20 | 11% | 21% | |
| 21 | 5% | 10% | |
| 22 | 3% | 5% | |
| 23 | 2% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 9 | 10% | 99.6% | |
| 10 | 49% | 90% | Median |
| 11 | 16% | 41% | |
| 12 | 11% | 24% | |
| 13 | 12% | 13% | |
| 14 | 1.5% | 1.5% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 5% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 27% | 95% | |
| 6 | 43% | 67% | Median |
| 7 | 18% | 25% | |
| 8 | 7% | 7% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 9% | 100% | |
| 6 | 13% | 91% | |
| 7 | 35% | 79% | Median |
| 8 | 40% | 44% | |
| 9 | 4% | 4% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 61% | 97% | Median |
| 4 | 25% | 36% | |
| 5 | 11% | 11% | |
| 6 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 9% | 100% | |
| 2 | 59% | 91% | Median |
| 3 | 29% | 33% | |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Potere al Popolo (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Potere al Popolo (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 81% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 18% | 19% | |
| 2 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 9% | 100% | |
| 6 | 13% | 91% | |
| 7 | 35% | 79% | Median |
| 8 | 40% | 44% | |
| 9 | 4% | 4% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: BiDiMedia
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 30 October–2 November 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.85%