Opinion Poll by Eumetra for La7, 11–12 November 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 30.8% | 28.7–32.9% | 28.1–33.5% | 27.6–34.0% | 26.7–35.1% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 22.1% | 20.3–24.1% | 19.8–24.6% | 19.4–25.1% | 18.5–26.1% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 12.9% | 11.5–14.5% | 11.1–15.0% | 10.7–15.4% | 10.1–16.2% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 8.8% | 7.6–10.2% | 7.3–10.6% | 7.0–10.9% | 6.5–11.6% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 8.1% | 7.0–9.5% | 6.7–9.9% | 6.4–10.2% | 5.9–10.9% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 2.9–4.6% | 2.7–4.9% | 2.5–5.2% | 2.2–5.7% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 3.4% | 2.7–4.3% | 2.5–4.6% | 2.3–4.9% | 2.0–5.4% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 1.8–3.2% | 1.6–3.5% | 1.5–3.7% | 1.3–4.1% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 1.8–3.2% | 1.6–3.5% | 1.5–3.7% | 1.3–4.1% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.1–2.2% | 1.0–2.4% | 0.9–2.6% | 0.7–3.0% |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.8% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.6–2.1% | 0.5–2.5% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.3–1.5% | 0.2–1.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 26 | 24–27 | 23–28 | 22–28 | 22–29 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 19 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 16–21 | 16–22 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 11 | 10–12 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 8–13 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–9 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–4 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 2% | 97% | |
| 24 | 17% | 94% | |
| 25 | 11% | 78% | |
| 26 | 21% | 67% | Median |
| 27 | 39% | 46% | |
| 28 | 6% | 7% | |
| 29 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 16 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 17 | 12% | 97% | |
| 18 | 19% | 85% | |
| 19 | 48% | 66% | Median |
| 20 | 14% | 18% | |
| 21 | 3% | 4% | |
| 22 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 9 | 7% | 99.2% | |
| 10 | 24% | 92% | |
| 11 | 31% | 68% | Median |
| 12 | 33% | 37% | |
| 13 | 4% | 4% | |
| 14 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 5 | 41% | 99.3% | |
| 6 | 30% | 58% | Median |
| 7 | 13% | 28% | |
| 8 | 14% | 15% | |
| 9 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 28% | 97% | |
| 7 | 48% | 69% | Median |
| 8 | 19% | 21% | |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 8% | 100% | |
| 3 | 46% | 92% | Median |
| 4 | 40% | 46% | |
| 5 | 5% | 6% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 83% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 17% | |
| 2 | 0% | 17% | |
| 3 | 2% | 17% | |
| 4 | 15% | 15% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.4% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 8% | 100% | |
| 2 | 67% | 92% | Median |
| 3 | 24% | 25% | |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 83% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 17% | 17% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 28% | 97% | |
| 7 | 48% | 69% | Median |
| 8 | 19% | 21% | |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Eumetra
- Commissioner(s): La7
- Fieldwork period: 11–12 November 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 800
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.00%