Opinion Poll by EMG, 29 October–13 November 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 29.2% 27.4–31.1% 26.9–31.6% 26.5–32.1% 25.6–33.0%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 20.8% 19.2–22.5% 18.8–23.0% 18.4–23.4% 17.7–24.3%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 13.3% 12.0–14.8% 11.6–15.2% 11.3–15.6% 10.7–16.3%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 8.6% 7.6–9.8% 7.3–10.2% 7.0–10.5% 6.5–11.1%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.4–4.6% 2.1–5.0%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.6% 2.1–3.4% 1.9–3.6% 1.8–3.8% 1.6–4.2%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.6–3.1% 1.4–3.3% 1.2–3.7%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.8% 1.4–2.5% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–2.8% 1.0–3.2%
Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) 0.0% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.7%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.7%
Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) 0.0% 1.3% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1% 0.8–2.2% 0.6–2.5%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.2% 0.2–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 25 24–27 23–27 23–27 22–28
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 18 17–19 17–20 16–20 14–21
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 12 11–13 10–13 10–13 10–14
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 7 6–7 6–8 6–9 5–9
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 8 7–8 6–8 6–9 6–9
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 3 3–4 3–5 3–5 2–5
Azione (RE) 0 0 0 0 0–3 0–4
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2–3 2–3 1–3 1–4
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.2% 100%  
22 1.1% 99.8%  
23 5% 98.7%  
24 8% 93%  
25 46% 86% Median
26 28% 39%  
27 11% 12%  
28 1.0% 1.1%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.6% 100%  
15 0.5% 99.4%  
16 3% 98.8%  
17 39% 96%  
18 26% 58% Median
19 25% 32%  
20 5% 7%  
21 1.2% 1.2%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.3% 100%  
10 9% 99.7%  
11 13% 91%  
12 50% 78% Median
13 28% 29%  
14 0.6% 0.7%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 1.3% 99.9%  
6 39% 98.6%  
7 54% 60% Median
8 1.3% 6%  
9 5% 5%  
10 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 5% 99.9%  
7 40% 95%  
8 50% 55% Median
9 4% 5%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 2% 100%  
3 84% 98% Median
4 8% 14%  
5 5% 6%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 5%  
2 0% 5%  
3 3% 5%  
4 1.2% 1.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.1% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.9%  
2 0% 0.9%  
3 0% 0.9%  
4 0.8% 0.8%  
5 0% 0%  

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 3% 100%  
2 82% 97% Median
3 14% 15%  
4 0.8% 0.8%  
5 0% 0%  

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 8% 8%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 8 0% 7–8 6–8 6–9 6–9

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 5% 99.9%  
7 40% 95%  
8 50% 55% Median
9 4% 5%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations