Opinion Poll by Termometro Politico, 11–13 November 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 30.4% 29.2–31.6% 28.9–31.9% 28.6–32.2% 28.1–32.8%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 21.8% 20.8–22.9% 20.5–23.2% 20.3–23.4% 19.8–24.0%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 12.0% 11.2–12.9% 11.0–13.1% 10.8–13.3% 10.4–13.7%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 8.4% 7.7–9.1% 7.5–9.3% 7.4–9.5% 7.1–9.9%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 8.3% 7.7–9.1% 7.5–9.3% 7.3–9.4% 7.0–9.8%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.6% 3.2–4.1% 3.1–4.3% 3.0–4.4% 2.8–4.7%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.6–3.5% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.2–4.0%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.5% 2.1–2.9% 2.0–3.1% 2.0–3.2% 1.8–3.4%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.4% 2.0–2.8% 1.9–2.9% 1.9–3.0% 1.7–3.3%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.7% 1.4–2.1% 1.3–2.2% 1.2–2.3% 1.1–2.5%
Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) 0.0% 1.4% 1.1–1.7% 1.1–1.8% 1.0–1.9% 0.9–2.1%
Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.1% 0.9–1.4% 0.8–1.5% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.8%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 1.0% 0.8–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–0.8% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 27 25–27 25–28 25–28 24–28
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 19 18–20 18–20 18–20 17–21
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 10 10–11 9–11 9–12 9–12
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 8 6–8 6–8 6–8 6–9
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 6 6–7 6–7 5–7 5–8
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Azione (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–3
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.5% 100%  
25 18% 99.5%  
26 31% 81%  
27 42% 50% Median
28 8% 9%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 2% 100%  
18 47% 98%  
19 34% 51% Median
20 16% 17%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 7% 100%  
10 51% 93% Median
11 39% 42%  
12 3% 3%  
13 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 13% 100%  
7 32% 87%  
8 54% 54% Median
9 0.6% 0.6%  
10 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 4% 100%  
6 73% 96% Median
7 22% 23%  
8 0.7% 0.8%  
9 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.2% 100%  
3 53% 99.8% Median
4 45% 46%  
5 1.1% 1.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.5%  
2 0% 0.5%  
3 0.2% 0.5%  
4 0.3% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.2% 100%  
2 60% 99.8% Median
3 40% 40%  
4 0% 0%  

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 8 0% 6–8 6–8 6–8 6–9

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 13% 100%  
7 32% 87%  
8 54% 54% Median
9 0.6% 0.6%  
10 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations