Opinion Poll by Piepoli, 17–18 November 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 31.6% 29.0–34.3% 28.3–35.1% 27.7–35.7% 26.5–37.1%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 20.9% 18.7–23.4% 18.1–24.1% 17.6–24.7% 16.6–25.9%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 11.0% 9.4–13.0% 9.0–13.6% 8.6–14.1% 7.9–15.1%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 9.1% 7.6–10.9% 7.2–11.4% 6.9–11.9% 6.2–12.8%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 8.5% 7.1–10.3% 6.7–10.8% 6.4–11.2% 5.7–12.2%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.4% 2.5–4.6% 2.3–5.0% 2.1–5.3% 1.8–6.0%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.2–4.2% 2.0–4.5% 1.8–4.8% 1.5–5.5%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.2–4.2% 2.0–4.5% 1.8–4.8% 1.5–5.5%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.2% 1.5–3.3% 1.4–3.6% 1.2–3.9% 1.0–4.4%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 2.0% 1.4–3.0% 1.2–3.3% 1.1–3.6% 0.9–4.2%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 1.6% 1.1–2.6% 0.9–2.8% 0.8–3.1% 0.6–3.6%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.3–1.3% 0.3–1.5% 0.2–1.7% 0.1–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 26 24–29 23–30 22–31 22–31
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 18 16–20 15–21 15–21 14–22
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 9 8–11 7–12 7–12 7–13
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 7 5–8 5–9 5–10 4–10
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 7 6–8 6–9 5–10 5–11
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 3 2–4 2–4 2–5 0–6
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0–3 0–4 0–4 0–5
Azione (RE) 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 0–4
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–3
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.3% 99.9%  
22 3% 99.6%  
23 4% 97%  
24 9% 92%  
25 23% 83%  
26 16% 60% Median
27 22% 43%  
28 9% 22%  
29 4% 12%  
30 4% 8%  
31 4% 4%  
32 0.2% 0.2%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.3% 99.9%  
14 2% 99.6%  
15 6% 98%  
16 15% 91%  
17 22% 77%  
18 20% 55% Median
19 17% 35%  
20 8% 18%  
21 9% 10%  
22 0.7% 0.8%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.5% 100%  
7 7% 99.5%  
8 13% 93%  
9 35% 79% Median
10 25% 44%  
11 10% 19%  
12 9% 9%  
13 0.5% 0.6%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 100%  
5 22% 98%  
6 24% 76%  
7 26% 52% Median
8 20% 26%  
9 3% 6%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.2% 100%  
5 4% 99.8%  
6 28% 95%  
7 49% 68% Median
8 10% 18%  
9 5% 9%  
10 3% 4%  
11 0.6% 0.7%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100% Last Result
1 1.0% 99.4%  
2 13% 98%  
3 49% 86% Median
4 34% 37%  
5 3% 4%  
6 0.5% 0.5%  
7 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 88% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 12%  
2 0% 12%  
3 5% 12%  
4 6% 7%  
5 0.5% 0.6%  
6 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 80% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 20%  
2 0% 20%  
3 5% 20%  
4 15% 15%  
5 0.6% 0.6%  
6 0% 0%  

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.8% 100% Last Result
1 16% 99.2%  
2 59% 83% Median
3 22% 24%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.6%  
2 0% 0.6%  
3 0.2% 0.6%  
4 0.4% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 78% 100% Last Result, Median
1 21% 22%  
2 1.0% 1.0%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 7 0% 6–8 6–9 5–10 5–11

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.2% 100%  
5 4% 99.8%  
6 28% 95%  
7 49% 68% Median
8 10% 18%  
9 5% 9%  
10 3% 4%  
11 0.6% 0.7%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations