Opinion Poll by Quorum – YouTrend for Sky TG24, 4–5 December 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 27.8% | 25.9–29.9% | 25.3–30.5% | 24.8–31.0% | 23.9–32.1% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 22.1% | 20.3–24.1% | 19.8–24.6% | 19.4–25.1% | 18.5–26.1% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 13.4% | 12.0–15.1% | 11.6–15.5% | 11.2–16.0% | 10.6–16.8% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 7.8% | 6.7–9.2% | 6.4–9.6% | 6.2–9.9% | 5.7–10.6% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 7.6% | 6.5–8.9% | 6.2–9.3% | 5.9–9.6% | 5.5–10.3% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 4.2% | 3.4–5.3% | 3.2–5.6% | 3.0–5.9% | 2.7–6.4% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 3.9% | 3.1–4.9% | 2.9–5.2% | 2.7–5.4% | 2.4–6.0% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 2.9% | 2.2–3.8% | 2.1–4.0% | 1.9–4.3% | 1.6–4.7% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.7% | 2.1–3.6% | 2.0–3.9% | 1.8–4.1% | 1.6–4.6% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.4–2.6% | 1.2–2.9% | 1.1–3.1% | 0.9–3.5% |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.4–1.5% | 0.3–1.6% | 0.2–1.9% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.4–1.5% | 0.3–1.6% | 0.2–1.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 24 | 22–26 | 22–26 | 21–26 | 20–26 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 19 | 17–20 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 15–21 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 11 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–13 | 9–14 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 6–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–8 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–6 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–4 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 20 | 1.3% | 99.7% | |
| 21 | 3% | 98% | |
| 22 | 14% | 96% | |
| 23 | 29% | 81% | |
| 24 | 10% | 52% | Median |
| 25 | 3% | 43% | |
| 26 | 39% | 39% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 3% | 98% | |
| 17 | 15% | 95% | |
| 18 | 14% | 79% | |
| 19 | 22% | 66% | Median |
| 20 | 41% | 44% | |
| 21 | 2% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 10% | 97% | |
| 11 | 64% | 87% | Median |
| 12 | 9% | 23% | |
| 13 | 13% | 14% | |
| 14 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 8% | 98.8% | |
| 6 | 21% | 91% | |
| 7 | 60% | 70% | Median |
| 8 | 9% | 10% | |
| 9 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 11% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 73% | 89% | Median |
| 6 | 13% | 16% | |
| 7 | 2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 3 | 27% | 99.4% | |
| 4 | 59% | 72% | Median |
| 5 | 12% | 13% | |
| 6 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 71% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 29% | |
| 2 | 0% | 29% | |
| 3 | 6% | 29% | |
| 4 | 22% | 23% | |
| 5 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 3 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 76% | 98.8% | Median |
| 3 | 22% | 23% | |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 74% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 26% | 26% | |
| 2 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 6–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–8 |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 8% | 98.8% | |
| 6 | 21% | 91% | |
| 7 | 60% | 70% | Median |
| 8 | 9% | 10% | |
| 9 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Quorum – YouTrend
- Commissioner(s): Sky TG24
- Fieldwork period: 4–5 December 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 805
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.82%