Opinion Poll by Demopolis for La7, 16–18 December 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 30.0% | 28.7–31.4% | 28.3–31.7% | 28.0–32.1% | 27.4–32.7% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 22.8% | 21.6–24.0% | 21.3–24.4% | 21.0–24.7% | 20.5–25.3% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 12.4% | 11.5–13.4% | 11.2–13.7% | 11.0–13.9% | 10.6–14.4% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 8.7% | 7.9–9.6% | 7.7–9.8% | 7.5–10.0% | 7.2–10.5% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 8.7% | 7.9–9.6% | 7.7–9.8% | 7.5–10.0% | 7.2–10.5% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 3.1–4.2% | 3.0–4.4% | 2.9–4.5% | 2.7–4.8% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.4–3.3% | 2.3–3.5% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.0–3.9% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.2–3.1% | 2.1–3.3% | 2.0–3.4% | 1.8–3.7% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 2.0–2.9% | 1.9–3.0% | 1.8–3.1% | 1.6–3.4% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–0.9% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 24 | 23–25 | 23–25 | 22–26 | 22–26 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 18 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 16–20 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 10 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 9–11 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 25% | 97% | |
| 24 | 46% | 72% | Median |
| 25 | 23% | 26% | |
| 26 | 3% | 3% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 17 | 13% | 99.1% | |
| 18 | 43% | 86% | Median |
| 19 | 30% | 43% | |
| 20 | 13% | 13% | |
| 21 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 9 | 30% | 99.7% | |
| 10 | 55% | 70% | Median |
| 11 | 15% | 15% | |
| 12 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 25% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 57% | 75% | Median |
| 7 | 18% | 18% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 14% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 71% | 86% | Median |
| 8 | 15% | 15% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 61% | 98% | Median |
| 4 | 36% | 36% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 6% | 100% | |
| 2 | 85% | 94% | Median |
| 3 | 10% | 10% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 95% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 5% | 5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 14% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 71% | 86% | Median |
| 8 | 15% | 15% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Demopolis
- Commissioner(s): La7
- Fieldwork period: 16–18 December 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 2000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.07%