Opinion Poll by Tecnè for Agenzia Dire, 17–18 December 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 31.1% | 29.3–33.0% | 28.7–33.6% | 28.3–34.0% | 27.4–35.0% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 21.8% | 20.2–23.5% | 19.7–24.0% | 19.3–24.5% | 18.6–25.3% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 11.9% | 10.7–13.3% | 10.3–13.7% | 10.0–14.1% | 9.5–14.8% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 10.7% | 9.5–12.1% | 9.2–12.4% | 8.9–12.8% | 8.4–13.5% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 8.4% | 7.4–9.6% | 7.1–10.0% | 6.8–10.3% | 6.4–10.9% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.5% | 2.9–4.4% | 2.7–4.6% | 2.5–4.8% | 2.2–5.3% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.6–4.0% | 2.4–4.3% | 2.3–4.5% | 2.0–4.9% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.8–3.0% | 1.6–3.2% | 1.5–3.4% | 1.3–3.8% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.6–2.8% | 1.5–3.0% | 1.4–3.2% | 1.2–3.6% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.2–2.2% | 1.1–2.4% | 1.0–2.6% | 0.8–2.9% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.2–1.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 26 | 24–27 | 24–28 | 23–28 | 23–29 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 18 | 17–20 | 16–20 | 16–21 | 15–21 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 10 | 9–11 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–12 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 8 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–9 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 23 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 24 | 9% | 97% | |
| 25 | 24% | 89% | |
| 26 | 33% | 64% | Median |
| 27 | 23% | 31% | |
| 28 | 7% | 8% | |
| 29 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 16 | 5% | 99.2% | |
| 17 | 16% | 95% | |
| 18 | 41% | 78% | Median |
| 19 | 24% | 37% | |
| 20 | 10% | 13% | |
| 21 | 2% | 3% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 5% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 21% | 95% | |
| 10 | 43% | 73% | Median |
| 11 | 29% | 31% | |
| 12 | 2% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 4% | 100% | |
| 7 | 24% | 96% | |
| 8 | 47% | 72% | Median |
| 9 | 23% | 25% | |
| 10 | 2% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 21% | 98.9% | |
| 7 | 51% | 78% | Median |
| 8 | 25% | 27% | |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 8% | 100% | |
| 3 | 56% | 92% | Median |
| 4 | 33% | 36% | |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 93% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 7% | |
| 3 | 3% | 7% | |
| 4 | 4% | 4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 10% | 100% | |
| 2 | 71% | 90% | Median |
| 3 | 18% | 18% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 85% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 15% | 15% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–9 |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 21% | 98.9% | |
| 7 | 51% | 78% | Median |
| 8 | 25% | 27% | |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Tecnè
- Commissioner(s): Agenzia Dire
- Fieldwork period: 17–18 December 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.82%