Opinion Poll by Quorum – YouTrend for Sky TG24, 18–19 December 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 28.3% | 26.7–30.0% | 26.2–30.5% | 25.8–30.9% | 25.1–31.8% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 22.8% | 21.3–24.4% | 20.9–24.9% | 20.5–25.3% | 19.8–26.1% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 12.7% | 11.6–14.1% | 11.2–14.4% | 11.0–14.8% | 10.4–15.4% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 8.3% | 7.4–9.4% | 7.1–9.8% | 6.9–10.0% | 6.5–10.6% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 8.1% | 7.1–9.2% | 6.9–9.5% | 6.7–9.8% | 6.2–10.3% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 4.1% | 3.4–4.9% | 3.2–5.2% | 3.1–5.4% | 2.8–5.8% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 3.3% | 2.7–4.1% | 2.6–4.3% | 2.5–4.5% | 2.2–4.9% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.7% | 2.1–3.4% | 2.0–3.6% | 1.9–3.7% | 1.7–4.1% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.4–2.8% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.2–3.3% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 1.7% | 1.3–2.3% | 1.2–2.4% | 1.1–2.6% | 0.9–2.9% |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.6–1.4% | 0.6–1.5% | 0.5–1.6% | 0.4–1.9% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.3–1.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 24 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 21–26 | 21–26 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 18 | 18–20 | 17–20 | 17–21 | 16–22 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 10 | 10–11 | 9–11 | 9–12 | 9–12 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 5–9 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–5 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–3 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 21 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 22 | 13% | 97% | |
| 23 | 13% | 84% | |
| 24 | 56% | 71% | Median |
| 25 | 11% | 15% | |
| 26 | 4% | 4% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 17 | 8% | 99.4% | |
| 18 | 53% | 91% | Median |
| 19 | 27% | 38% | |
| 20 | 8% | 12% | |
| 21 | 3% | 3% | |
| 22 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 9% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 63% | 91% | Median |
| 11 | 25% | 29% | |
| 12 | 3% | 4% | |
| 13 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 9% | 100% | |
| 5 | 45% | 91% | Median |
| 6 | 31% | 47% | |
| 7 | 15% | 15% | |
| 8 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 1.5% | 100% | |
| 6 | 26% | 98% | |
| 7 | 69% | 73% | Median |
| 8 | 3% | 3% | |
| 9 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 3 | 20% | 99.3% | |
| 4 | 72% | 79% | Median |
| 5 | 7% | 8% | |
| 6 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 89% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 11% | |
| 2 | 0% | 11% | |
| 3 | 2% | 11% | |
| 4 | 8% | 8% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 2 | 45% | 99.1% | |
| 3 | 54% | 54% | Median |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 88% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 12% | 12% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 5–9 |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 1.5% | 100% | |
| 6 | 26% | 98% | |
| 7 | 69% | 73% | Median |
| 8 | 3% | 3% | |
| 9 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Quorum – YouTrend
- Commissioner(s): Sky TG24
- Fieldwork period: 18–19 December 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1201
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.02%