Opinion Poll by EMG, 12–13 January 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 28.6% 26.8–30.5% 26.3–31.0% 25.9–31.5% 25.0–32.4%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 22.3% 20.7–24.1% 20.2–24.6% 19.8–25.0% 19.1–25.8%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 12.8% 11.5–14.3% 11.2–14.7% 10.9–15.0% 10.3–15.7%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 8.3% 7.3–9.5% 7.0–9.9% 6.7–10.2% 6.3–10.8%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 8.3% 7.3–9.5% 7.0–9.9% 6.7–10.2% 6.3–10.8%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.2% 2.6–4.0% 2.4–4.3% 2.3–4.5% 2.0–4.9%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.1–3.8% 1.9–4.0% 1.7–4.4%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.8% 1.4–2.5% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–2.8% 1.0–3.2%
Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.1%
Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.1%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.6% 0.8–2.9%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.2% 0.2–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 24 23–27 23–27 23–28 22–28
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 19 17–20 17–21 17–21 17–22
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 12 10–13 10–14 10–14 9–14
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 6 6–7 6–8 5–8 4–8
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 7 7–8 6–8 6–9 6–9
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 3 3 2–4 2–4 2–4
Azione (RE) 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0–4 0–4
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.7% 99.9%  
23 9% 99.2%  
24 56% 90% Median
25 3% 34%  
26 17% 31%  
27 10% 13%  
28 3% 3%  
29 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.2% 100%  
17 37% 99.8%  
18 6% 62%  
19 43% 56% Median
20 7% 14%  
21 5% 7%  
22 1.4% 2%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 1.0% 100%  
10 19% 98.9%  
11 22% 80%  
12 45% 58% Median
13 4% 13%  
14 9% 9%  
15 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.8% 100%  
5 2% 99.2%  
6 62% 97% Median
7 29% 35%  
8 6% 6%  
9 0.4% 0.4%  
10 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.3% 100%  
6 9% 99.7%  
7 79% 91% Median
8 10% 12%  
9 2% 3%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 100%  
2 7% 99.9%  
3 84% 93% Median
4 9% 9%  
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 62% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 38%  
2 0% 38%  
3 37% 38%  
4 0.9% 0.9%  
5 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 4%  
2 0% 4%  
3 0.5% 4%  
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 15% 100%  
2 41% 85% Median
3 44% 44%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 73% 100% Last Result, Median
1 27% 27%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 7 0% 7–8 6–8 6–9 6–9

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.3% 100%  
6 9% 99.7%  
7 79% 91% Median
8 10% 12%  
9 2% 3%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations