Opinion Poll by SWG for La7, 14–19 January 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 31.1% | 29.4–32.8% | 28.9–33.3% | 28.5–33.8% | 27.7–34.6% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 22.4% | 20.9–24.0% | 20.5–24.5% | 20.1–24.9% | 19.4–25.7% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 12.4% | 11.3–13.7% | 10.9–14.1% | 10.7–14.4% | 10.1–15.1% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 8.4% | 7.5–9.5% | 7.2–9.8% | 7.0–10.1% | 6.5–10.7% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 8.0% | 7.1–9.1% | 6.8–9.4% | 6.6–9.7% | 6.2–10.2% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.5% | 2.9–4.3% | 2.7–4.5% | 2.6–4.7% | 2.3–5.1% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.3–3.6% | 2.1–3.8% | 2.0–3.9% | 1.8–4.3% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.9–3.0% | 1.7–3.2% | 1.6–3.4% | 1.4–3.7% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.4–2.8% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.2–3.3% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.0–1.9% | 0.9–2.0% | 0.8–2.2% | 0.7–2.5% |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.7% | 0.8–1.8% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.6–2.2% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.2–1.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 26 | 25–27 | 24–28 | 24–28 | 23–29 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 19 | 17–19 | 17–20 | 17–21 | 16–22 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 11 | 10–11 | 9–11 | 9–12 | 8–12 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–8 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 5–8 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 24 | 6% | 99.2% | |
| 25 | 24% | 94% | |
| 26 | 49% | 70% | Median |
| 27 | 15% | 21% | |
| 28 | 3% | 5% | |
| 29 | 2% | 2% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 17 | 25% | 99.1% | |
| 18 | 21% | 74% | |
| 19 | 46% | 53% | Median |
| 20 | 5% | 7% | |
| 21 | 2% | 3% | |
| 22 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 9 | 8% | 99.2% | |
| 10 | 9% | 91% | |
| 11 | 77% | 82% | Median |
| 12 | 4% | 5% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 6% | 98.9% | |
| 6 | 47% | 93% | Median |
| 7 | 45% | 46% | |
| 8 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 46% | 99.0% | |
| 7 | 49% | 53% | Median |
| 8 | 4% | 4% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 37% | 97% | |
| 4 | 57% | 59% | Median |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.1% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 89% | 97% | Median |
| 3 | 7% | 7% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 5–8 |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 46% | 99.0% | |
| 7 | 49% | 53% | Median |
| 8 | 4% | 4% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: SWG
- Commissioner(s): La7
- Fieldwork period: 14–19 January 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1200
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.71%