Opinion Poll by Termometro Politico, 20–22 January 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 30.0% 28.9–31.2% 28.5–31.5% 28.3–31.8% 27.7–32.4%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 22.1% 21.1–23.2% 20.8–23.5% 20.6–23.8% 20.1–24.3%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 12.3% 11.5–13.2% 11.3–13.4% 11.1–13.6% 10.7–14.1%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 8.5% 7.8–9.3% 7.6–9.5% 7.5–9.6% 7.2–10.0%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 8.4% 7.7–9.1% 7.5–9.3% 7.4–9.5% 7.1–9.9%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.7% 3.2–4.2% 3.1–4.4% 3.0–4.5% 2.8–4.8%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 3.1% 2.7–3.6% 2.6–3.7% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.1%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.5% 2.1–2.9% 2.0–3.1% 2.0–3.2% 1.8–3.4%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.4% 2.1–2.9% 2.0–3.0% 1.9–3.1% 1.7–3.3%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.7% 1.4–2.1% 1.3–2.2% 1.2–2.3% 1.1–2.5%
Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) 0.0% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–2.0%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 1.1% 0.9–1.4% 0.8–1.5% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.8%
Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.1% 0.9–1.4% 0.8–1.5% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.8%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.5–0.9% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 25 25–27 25–27 25–27 23–28
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 20 17–20 17–20 17–21 17–21
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 11 10–11 10–11 10–12 9–12
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 6 6–7 6–7 6–7 5–8
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 7 7–8 7–8 6–8 6–9
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Azione (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–3
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.8% 100%  
24 2% 99.2%  
25 59% 98% Median
26 18% 38%  
27 19% 20%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 12% 100%  
18 10% 88%  
19 26% 78%  
20 49% 52% Median
21 3% 3%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 2% 100%  
10 20% 98%  
11 74% 78% Median
12 5% 5%  
13 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 2% 100%  
6 73% 98% Median
7 23% 25%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 5% 100%  
7 75% 95% Median
8 18% 20%  
9 1.4% 1.4%  
10 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 22% 99.9%  
4 76% 78% Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.1% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.9%  
2 0% 0.9%  
3 0.4% 0.9%  
4 0.5% 0.5%  
5 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.5% 100%  
2 87% 99.5% Median
3 13% 13%  
4 0% 0%  

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.2% 1.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 7 0% 7–8 7–8 6–8 6–9

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 5% 100%  
7 75% 95% Median
8 18% 20%  
9 1.4% 1.4%  
10 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations