Opinion Poll by Termometro Politico, 27–29 January 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 30.3% 29.2–31.5% 28.9–31.8% 28.6–32.1% 28.1–32.6%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 22.2% 21.2–23.2% 20.9–23.5% 20.7–23.8% 20.2–24.3%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 12.1% 11.3–13.0% 11.1–13.2% 10.9–13.4% 10.6–13.8%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 8.6% 7.9–9.3% 7.7–9.5% 7.6–9.7% 7.3–10.1%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 8.4% 7.8–9.1% 7.6–9.3% 7.4–9.5% 7.1–9.9%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.6% 3.2–4.1% 3.0–4.3% 2.9–4.4% 2.8–4.6%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.6–3.5% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.2–4.0%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.5% 2.1–2.9% 2.0–3.0% 2.0–3.1% 1.8–3.4%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.3% 2.0–2.8% 1.9–2.9% 1.8–3.0% 1.7–3.2%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.7% 1.4–2.1% 1.3–2.2% 1.3–2.3% 1.2–2.5%
Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) 0.0% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–2.0%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 1.0% 0.8–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6%
Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.0% 0.8–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–0.8% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 26 25–27 25–27 24–27 24–27
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 19 18–20 18–20 18–20 18–21
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 11 9–12 9–12 9–12 9–12
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 6 6–7 6–7 6–7 5–8
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 6–8
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Azione (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2 2 2–3 1–3
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 2% 100%  
25 45% 97%  
26 27% 53% Median
27 26% 26%  
28 0.3% 0.3%  
29 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.4% 100%  
18 11% 99.6%  
19 43% 88% Median
20 45% 46%  
21 0.6% 0.6%  
22 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 15% 100%  
10 24% 85%  
11 25% 60% Median
12 36% 36%  
13 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 1.4% 100%  
6 60% 98.6% Median
7 37% 39%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 11% 100%  
7 59% 89% Median
8 30% 30%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.3% 100%  
3 69% 99.7% Median
4 30% 31%  
5 0.9% 0.9%  
6 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0.1% 0.2%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 1.5% 100%  
2 95% 98.5% Median
3 4% 4%  
4 0% 0%  

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 84% 100% Last Result, Median
1 16% 16%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 7 0% 6–8 6–8 6–8 6–8

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 11% 100%  
7 59% 89% Median
8 30% 30%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations