Opinion Poll by Termometro Politico, 3–5 February 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 29.8% | 28.7–30.9% | 28.4–31.2% | 28.2–31.5% | 27.6–32.0% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 22.0% | 21.0–23.0% | 20.8–23.3% | 20.5–23.5% | 20.1–24.0% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 11.9% | 11.2–12.7% | 10.9–12.9% | 10.8–13.1% | 10.4–13.5% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 8.3% | 7.7–9.0% | 7.5–9.2% | 7.3–9.4% | 7.1–9.7% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 7.7% | 7.1–8.4% | 6.9–8.6% | 6.8–8.7% | 6.5–9.1% |
| Futuro Nazionale (NI) | 0.0% | 3.5% | 3.1–4.0% | 3.0–4.1% | 2.9–4.3% | 2.7–4.5% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.5% | 3.1–4.0% | 3.0–4.1% | 2.9–4.3% | 2.7–4.5% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.4–3.2% | 2.3–3.4% | 2.2–3.5% | 2.1–3.7% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 2.1–2.8% | 2.0–2.9% | 1.9–3.0% | 1.8–3.2% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 2.0–2.7% | 1.9–2.8% | 1.8–2.9% | 1.7–3.1% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.3–1.9% | 1.2–2.0% | 1.2–2.1% | 1.1–2.3% |
| Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.9–1.4% | 0.8–1.5% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.7–1.7% |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.8–1.3% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.6–1.6% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–0.8% | 0.4–0.9% | 0.4–0.9% | 0.3–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 26 | 26 | 25–27 | 25–27 | 25–28 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 20 | 19–20 | 18–20 | 18–21 | 18–21 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 10 | 10–11 | 10–11 | 9–12 | 9–12 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–7 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6–7 | 6–8 |
| Futuro Nazionale (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–4 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 25 | 8% | 99.6% | |
| 26 | 85% | 92% | Median |
| 27 | 6% | 7% | |
| 28 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 18 | 5% | 99.6% | |
| 19 | 12% | 94% | |
| 20 | 78% | 82% | Median |
| 21 | 4% | 4% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 86% | 96% | Median |
| 11 | 7% | 10% | |
| 12 | 3% | 3% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 6 | 14% | 99.1% | |
| 7 | 85% | 85% | Median |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 4% | 100% | |
| 7 | 94% | 96% | Median |
| 8 | 2% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Futuro Nazionale (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 3% | |
| 3 | 2% | 3% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 90% | 99.9% | Median |
| 4 | 10% | 10% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 2 | 95% | 99.6% | Median |
| 3 | 4% | 4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 95% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 5% | 5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 7 | 7 | 6–7 | 6–8 |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 4% | 100% | |
| 7 | 94% | 96% | Median |
| 8 | 2% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Termometro Politico
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 3–5 February 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 2900
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.87%