Opinion Poll by BiDiMedia, 5–8 February 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 28.5% 27.2–29.8% 26.9–30.2% 26.6–30.5% 26.0–31.2%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 22.5% 21.3–23.7% 21.0–24.1% 20.7–24.4% 20.2–25.0%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 12.1% 11.2–13.1% 11.0–13.4% 10.7–13.6% 10.3–14.1%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 7.9% 7.2–8.7% 7.0–9.0% 6.8–9.2% 6.5–9.6%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 7.4% 6.7–8.2% 6.5–8.4% 6.3–8.6% 6.0–9.0%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.8% 3.3–4.4% 3.2–4.6% 3.0–4.7% 2.8–5.0%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 2.8% 2.4–3.3% 2.3–3.5% 2.2–3.6% 2.0–3.9%
Futuro Nazionale (NI) 0.0% 2.6% 2.2–3.1% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.4% 1.8–3.7%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.5% 2.1–3.0% 2.0–3.2% 1.9–3.3% 1.7–3.6%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.3% 1.9–2.8% 1.8–2.9% 1.7–3.1% 1.6–3.3%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.6% 0.9–1.7% 0.8–1.8% 0.7–2.0%
Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.0% 0.5–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.3%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.0% 0.5–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.3%
Potere al Popolo (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.0% 0.5–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.3%
Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.2%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 24 24–27 24–27 24–27 22–27
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 20 19–21 19–21 18–21 17–22
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 11 10–11 10–12 10–12 9–13
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 6 5–6 5–6 5–7 5–7
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 7 6–7 6–8 5–8 5–8
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Azione (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Futuro Nazionale (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 1–4
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Potere al Popolo (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 1.0% 100%  
23 1.1% 99.0%  
24 67% 98% Median
25 12% 31%  
26 9% 19%  
27 10% 10%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 2% 100%  
18 0.5% 98%  
19 10% 97%  
20 57% 87% Median
21 29% 30%  
22 0.7% 0.9%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 2% 100%  
10 47% 98%  
11 44% 52% Median
12 8% 8%  
13 0.5% 0.5%  
14 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 10% 100%  
6 85% 89% Median
7 4% 4%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 4% 100%  
6 30% 96%  
7 57% 66% Median
8 9% 9%  
9 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 13% 100%  
4 69% 87% Median
5 18% 18%  
6 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Futuro Nazionale (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.7% 100%  
2 42% 99.3%  
3 20% 57% Median
4 37% 37%  
5 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Potere al Popolo (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Potere al Popolo (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 7 0% 6–7 6–8 5–8 5–8

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 4% 100%  
6 30% 96%  
7 57% 66% Median
8 9% 9%  
9 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations